Posts from Mafia 107. Fever and Overdose Auto-translated

Master, do you think the Mafia couldn't have used the father's beating as a cover for tonight?

I'm not making any assumptions yet. A lot of peaceful roles have already been eliminated from the game, 1 Mafia role, and 1 is questionable, depending on whether the block came from the Sheriff or not. + there's a good chance it's a Serial Killer.

In this game, we're unlikely to wait for any 100% probabilities for a vote, given the complexity of the setup and the presence of various redirects, so for me, this is a good option for the next day, if everything remains approximately the same.

Nefela, how are things going with the table?

The Mafia was blocking me to cover for their commander.

But weren't you already suspected? Before tonight, you could have been anyone, and no one would have touched you. It seems more like a simple attempt to spread misinformation.

And your words sound extremely suspicious to me.

 

If we assume I'm Schrödinger's Nebula, who is either good or bad (but you believe I'm good, right?), then I have 2-3 peaceful roles that aren't visible and 2-3 bad roles.

I'd like to hear what Nebula himself has to say about this, but that would waste another night. But at least we know he's not the Godfather.

Added 2 minutes ago

Nebula, how are things going with the spreadsheet?

As far as I can tell, I've finished it.

I can share the results, but I'm a bit of a mess.

Ugh, and I was already imagining a clever plan where you advocate for executing the blocked player, while being the player's father with only one protection against execution, and then you decided to switch to Haven...
Well, that makes sense, because Haven is essentially a blocked player, but only on the next turn or the absence of a turn will we really see the father's move, so... the plan isn't clear.
Why isn't Haven a Dungeon? Or are you, on the contrary, suspecting that it might be?
If anything, the redirection of the hypocrite towards me is not entirely a joke. The tradition of going to Ment on the second turn certainly exists, but this time I seemed to successfully pretend to be inactive and didn't give him a reason.

And haven't you been suspected already?

That's a strange question; you can actually deflect accusations preventively!
P.S. Yes, let's have a leaderboard; that would be nice.

Many peaceful roles have already been eliminated from the game, 1 Mafia role and 1 role that is questionable, depending on whether there was a block from PSL or not.

For Nebula, I have theoretically Love, Board Games, and Doctor from the town, and Reaper, Monster, and Doppelganger from the well-disguised roles.

Mother, Father, Vlad, Knight, PSL, and Liar have been eliminated with ultimates, and Waifu is dead and automatically eliminated from everyone.

 

Which role do you have for Nebula that is questionable?

Continuing yesterday's thought about the father's inaction... At first, it seemed far-fetched, but after thinking about it a bit, I started to like it. To reiterate its essence: 7 immune players out of 13 in the first night. If we assume that three or four immune players were assigned to the Mafia, there is a non-zero probability that the Mafia could randomly kill one of them simply because there weren't many other targets. In this case, the father skipping his turn gives him immunity for that night, and they can safely survive it by covering themselves with defenses from head to toe. Given that attacks did occur, we can assume that: 1. The father had immunity in the first night; 2. And/or not all, or part of, the Mafia were not immune players. In general, there is a high probability that the father is among the immune players, and perhaps a couple more Mafia members as well. Of course, there are assumptions and probabilities for everything; the Mafia could have been assigned to four immune players, and they simply went on the attack without thinking or deliberately not bothering with it. But absolute certainty is usually a luxury and a bourgeois excess. By the way, there haven't been any posts yet about the three two immune players. The game is complex, and there's nothing to latch onto, and everyone has their own temperament for playing, but in my mind, one thing can't help but connect to another.

Damn, it's complicated.

On one hand, I'm too lazy to retype everything, but on the other hand, I'm getting lost in this table myself.

So,

1. Morning. Cannot be Vlad (Night 1) or PSL (Night 2).

 ̶3̶ ̶Vishmaster Waifu̶ ̶(̶R̶I̶P̶)̶

8. Ment. Not Knight, not Hypocrite (based on Night 2 results). If PSL protected someone on Night 2, then he cannot be PSL.

9. Nebo. Not Mother, Vlad, Knight, PSL, Father, Hypocrite (all based on ultimate results).

10. Fragment. Not Knight (Night 2), not Hypocrite (Night 1). If PSL protected someone on Night 1, then he cannot be PSL.

I found a mistake: Vlad is not blocked by the Hypocrite.

Added 2 minutes ago

Tox, Father has immunity until his turn (in the ND queue) or until the night he takes his turn?

Morning, did you remember a game where the killer started killing people from the first night?)

Edited manually after X seconds

It's annoying that it sends 2 messages from the computer and kicks me to a page that says, "But the limit is 30 seconds, find a way to get off this page."

Given that the fight did occur, we can assume that:
1. The father had immunity on the first night;
2. And/or all or some of the mafia members were clearly not immune players.

Stop!
"Covering with protections" sounds very cool, but how does the father's immunity or lack thereof, as well as the father's action or inaction, affect the number of immune players in the mafia overall? Two of them naturally have protection, and the third (the hypocrite) is what he is. Yes, you can protect him with a monster if he has no immunity, but you know, it's one thing to have a chance of the mafia hitting *some* mafia member, and another to protect a specific one, even if he's immune, when there's no reason and skipping the kill is a bad move.

Due to Father's immunity – if the Mafia doesn't declare Night Defense for him, his immunity will last the entire night.

I don't see much point in the mafia saving themselves from the Maniac or the gorStrelok, especially on the first night

If I remember the same tenets of ХВ mafia correctly, we most often execute based on evidence and "nakurka," and from that point of view, killing the Father is absolutely imba. It leaves no evidence, isn't redirected to one's own, isn't disrupted by Vladik, and pierces the Mother's isolation. Essentially, only the Doc, Knight, or a 50% PSL can save against it

 

Added after the message below 

Ah, well, and he isn't executed on the first try.

You won't kill him until he comes out himself, and you won't execute him until we've nailed him twice

Added after 2 minutes

Regarding the Father's immunity - if the mafia didn't declare an ND from him for the night, then his immunity works for the entire night

Wait, stop-stop-stop! You mean, if this bastard was killing on the first night, but on the second he's staying home and procrastinating, then he's immune this night?!

that's foul of him!

What's so despicable about it? Abandoning a wife and children – that's despicable. But here, everything seems obvious; if it doesn't kill, then there's immunity.

Execute Morning. Something about this gentleman makes him seem like a real scoundrel.

Yashchur, write and tell me what you think of the current situation, who's Mafia and who's not? Who do you suspect besides Nebk? Why haven't you voted for Ment yet, and why did you completely ignore him on the first day? That's not like you. Before the game started, you were eager to hang him
Right now, who do you want to execute more, Ment or Loken?

Ment, you write too, write more... Start by answering the same questions I asked Yashchur. You don't have to answer the last one, though.

I have two theories:
1. The Mafia blocked me to protect their teammate.
2. The Shapeshifter was redirected to me. The Villager now knows who the Shapeshifter is.
That's what came to mind first.
P.S. It's time to read the setup, I guess.

The first option is especially appealing to me; it even occurred to me before I saw your post. Blocks are in vogue these days... Thanks for saying it yourself.

In general, there's a high probability that the father is among the immune players, and maybe even a couple more Mafia members.
Of course, there are assumptions and probabilities for everything;

And that's precisely why it's easy to push the topic of immune players as a false lead. Nice try, and now Ment has joined in, just as you asked.

We can argue endlessly about immune players and protections, but I suggest we start executing. I expect votes from everyone today.

Morning, do you remember a game where a maniac started killing people from the very first night?

I can't even remember the last game I played, what are you talking about? And if we're talking generally, then dozens. With one Mafia and two, one Maniac and two. We've had situations where the townies went to kill people on the first night, playing for a win.

Ultimately, we still have the same two options today: skip another day, or execute someone without evidence. We won't be able to execute Nebo today anyway because he's "at the dacha." If we don't skip a day, we'll have to somehow force a check on the others. Our options are: search for the maniac in other blocks (thereby eliminating the need to confirm the theory about Nebo), analyze behavior (which can always be dismissed as an argument with almost anything), or other indirect clues. In our Soviet times, people were executed for saying the wrong things or even just for inactivity – the old-timers know this.
I just want to remind everyone, so that it sticks in their heads and they can process it by tomorrow evening, when we'll have to go to the night phase again, or choose someone.

Stop!
"Covering with protections" sounds very cool, but how does the immunity or lack thereof of the father, as well as the father's inaction or action, affect how many immune people are in the Mafia overall? Two of them definitely have natural protections, and the third (the liar) has what he has. Yes, you can protect him with a monster if he has no immunity, but you know, it's one thing to have a chance for the Maniac to end up in some Mafia member, and another thing to protect a specific person, even if he's not immune, when there are no prerequisites and skipping the kill is an option.

Well, yes, two have built-in protections, and two don't. If you want, you can divide your "overall" in half for this theory. If there are immunities, you can relax, have the father attack and/or spend the third night action on a check, rather than protection. If there are no immunities, you can protect yourself by having the father sit out and/or protecting the liar. The liar blocked, the father attacked, as we see in the end – this could very well indicate that both of them were protected. We won't see a monster protection or a reaper check, but the father didn't sit out. Statistically, there is a good chance that Mafia members are among the immune (almost half of the players), and given that the father was active, it is likely that this was not the worst-case scenario, in which both of their vulnerable roles remain open on the first night. Accordingly, 1+ Mafia member is likely among the immune. I think there are even more, based on the overall feeling – the activity of the immune and the content of their posts. But we don't have 100% information about anyone, and it's not certain that we ever will. Even Nebo could have ended up in bad company and been set up, while the real maniac, for example, is just using non-lethal night actions. But we need to gradually outline some kind of picture.

Added 9 minutes ago

And that's why it's easy to promote the immunity theme as a false lead. Nice try, and now Ment has joined in, just like you asked.

Okay. I've already indicated my candidates in the previous post – Gumer and Freud. Zero messages in the game, both immune, although they did visit the thread. Once upon a time, this was considered Mafia behavior, and it also fits the immunity theory.

Do you have any leads?

 

but you do believe that I'm a good person, right?

no

Added 1 minute ago

What role do you have in mind for Neb?

I was thinking of a hypocrite, but I forgot that his block wouldn't have been displayed tonight. So, only 2 mafia roles.

Added 10 minutes ago

You can argue about immunities and defenses as much as you want, but I suggest we start executing. Today, I expect votes from everyone.

I would execute Yashur or Nephela. But this is based purely on the rhetoric from the first day. The cop is still messing around; he has slightly better ideas about possible roles than Neb. And I don't believe that the mafia intentionally blocked their own teammate. But overall, they're doing a good job using the block. They're giving the town extra information and kindly sharing the chance with the serial killer to figure out the hypocrite.

I hope Toks won't have to rack his brain with a replacement, and the immune people who were silent in the first night will eventually make themselves known.

Very little information about the newspaper. Please explain why you decided that it was the father who killed Vishmaster-Waifu, and not a maniac who killed Vishmaster-Reaper? Also, I didn't understand the accusation that "doesn't write" = "mafia." It sounds unconvincing, and in my experience, the mafia writes the most. Personally, I suspect Ment, Master, and Morning, but I can't say anything specific yet; maybe I just don't like the letter M.