Posts from Mafia 103. Ice and Ash Auto-translated

What do I need to explain to you?
You are a likely Mafia member, and you didn't answer the question: why am I not Mafia.

If you are two peaceful players, I'd rather stay with Rimpel, as there is information about him regarding the block.

No, Uran, that won't work. I'm not going to come up with arguments in favor of someone I consider to be Mafia. And in general, I'd like to hear them from you.

Yes, it's better to stick with someone whose chances of being innocent are 25%, rather than with someone whose chances are 60%. That's right.

Why didn't Mr. Stygior heal her? This is an important question, in my opinion. I know all the possible answers, but I suggest you think about it yourselves.

I remind you, Master, that I want a different vote from you. Not for Rimpel, but for someone I can support.
Fragment, Revan, Vishmaster, and by the way, Shaman, whom you also suspect, are at your service.
I don't see any peacefulness in Shaman. Are you ready to hang him, that is, to hang him, and not just suspect him or not?

I think I already wrote this. Not about why Uranium is Mafia, but about why Fragment isn't. That's what I'm waiting for.

Probably because he's an asshole, or Toxic. And if the doctor is Toxic, that makes Rimpel's chances of being peaceful very slim.

Oh, right. My chances of being peaceful are not 60%, but 70%. We still have 3 mafia and 7 town members.

And how am I mafia? There's no information about me in the newspaper, so either you have personal information about me from the night action (and even about me? you're really everywhere!), or some analysis of my behavior in the game. I think I explained why I suspect you. I'd like to know first why I'm a likely mafia member for you.

Yes, spreading votes to someone else will definitely be the best solution right now.

You are wrong.
First, if you look at it from my perspective, there is one less peaceful person around me, because one of the townspeople is me.
Second, I know the roles of the eliminated Yaschur incarnation 1 - Aurelius and Nefeli - Flavius.
I don't know Visrita's role, or at least, it's not obvious with a sufficient degree of certainty.
I know that neither of the two displayed checkers, the cook, nor Esben is him.
Among the rest, he could theoretically be any peaceful role.
Yes, "brother" and "experienced in northern expeditions" point more towards Frithjof.
On the other hand, why can't we assume he's a blocker? There was no mention of a block in the newspaper.
And you accuse me of not reading the roles. But you didn't read the priority – doubling the night action goes before the block (and the chain, but that's irrelevant), for example. So your reasoning isn't entirely correct.
That is, we have a doctor, an unrevealed checker, a cook, and Frithjof (yes, the absence of a block gives the probability of the blocker's death, and you can't deny that. This is for Rimpel).
The picture is slightly different for Vishmaster, but you calculated the probability incorrectly, even taking into account that, theoretically, if he has one of these roles as his own, the chances are calculated slightly differently. But for himself, not in the game.
Now let's estimate what role Master could be, and what role he couldn't be.
For example, we can safely rule out the blocker – Master's night action cannot bypass the night action.
An unhealed Nefeli is a mistake by the doctor (or a clever plan by the doctor, that they won't kill the one they will heal/protect). Could Master have done that? I don't think so.
Doubling the night action over protection. At first glance, it's not the smartest move, as it can double a mafia kill, and Master himself admitted that his time is limited. Could Master be the cook, considering that Flavius, a highly probable role for Nefeli, was doubled? No.
Also, Master believes that Frithjof was outed as Visrita. Could he be Frithjof? Of course not.
So, I have slightly different probabilities for you. This is just part of what I haven't written yet.

Added 4 minutes ago

I asked what makes you not mafia. You are trying to get me to accuse you.
But my answer is quite simple – you are in the remaining group.
Together with Master, Vish, Shaman, and Revan. I'm ignoring Tox for now, as I already wrote about.
In general, I think there are two or three mafia members in this remaining group.
So, I calmly approach from the other side and ask you: what can you provide to confirm that you are not mafia?
Your behavior in the game is typical of a spoon. To make a detailed analysis, you need to write more. At least half as much as I do. I'm not afraid to write so that I can be analyzed from all sides.

Who framed Ment/guessed him based on clues?

So why don't we start with Spoon Visha?

I would gladly return to executing Uranus, but unfortunately, it doesn't seem possible right now. Nevertheless, at the moment, I believe the situation is as follows:
1. Executing Rimpel > executing Master
2. No Night Vote > executing Master

For example, because Nespuna had far more opportunities to suspect his direct competitor, Rimpel, but he didn't, even when I repeatedly pointed this out. But it was practically ordained that the mafia master be executed.

I asked you why you aren't Mafia. You're trying to get me to reveal accusations.
And my answer is quite simple – you're among the remaining players.
Along with Master, Vish, Shaman, and Revan. I'm currently ignoring Tox, as I already wrote.
In general, I believe there are two or three Mafia members among the remaining players.
So, I calmly enter from the other side and ask you: how can you prove that you are not Mafia?
Your behavior in the thread is typical of a spoon. For me to do a detailed analysis, you need to write more. At least half as much as I do. I'm not afraid to write so that I can be analyzed from all sides.