You are wrong.
First, if you look at it from my perspective, there is one less peaceful person around me, because one of the townspeople is me.
Second, I know the roles of the eliminated Yaschur incarnation 1 - Aurelius and Nefeli - Flavius.
I don't know Visrita's role, or at least, it's not obvious with a sufficient degree of certainty.
I know that neither of the two displayed checkers, the cook, nor Esben is him.
Among the rest, he could theoretically be any peaceful role.
Yes, "brother" and "experienced in northern expeditions" point more towards Frithjof.
On the other hand, why can't we assume he's a blocker? There was no mention of a block in the newspaper.
And you accuse me of not reading the roles. But you didn't read the priority – doubling the night action goes before the block (and the chain, but that's irrelevant), for example. So your reasoning isn't entirely correct.
That is, we have a doctor, an unrevealed checker, a cook, and Frithjof (yes, the absence of a block gives the probability of the blocker's death, and you can't deny that. This is for Rimpel).
The picture is slightly different for Vishmaster, but you calculated the probability incorrectly, even taking into account that, theoretically, if he has one of these roles as his own, the chances are calculated slightly differently. But for himself, not in the game.
Now let's estimate what role Master could be, and what role he couldn't be.
For example, we can safely rule out the blocker – Master's night action cannot bypass the night action.
An unhealed Nefeli is a mistake by the doctor (or a clever plan by the doctor, that they won't kill the one they will heal/protect). Could Master have done that? I don't think so.
Doubling the night action over protection. At first glance, it's not the smartest move, as it can double a mafia kill, and Master himself admitted that his time is limited. Could Master be the cook, considering that Flavius, a highly probable role for Nefeli, was doubled? No.
Also, Master believes that Frithjof was outed as Visrita. Could he be Frithjof? Of course not.
So, I have slightly different probabilities for you. This is just part of what I haven't written yet.
Added 4 minutes ago
I asked what makes you not mafia. You are trying to get me to accuse you.
But my answer is quite simple – you are in the remaining group.
Together with Master, Vish, Shaman, and Revan. I'm ignoring Tox for now, as I already wrote about.
In general, I think there are two or three mafia members in this remaining group.
So, I calmly approach from the other side and ask you: what can you provide to confirm that you are not mafia?
Your behavior in the game is typical of a spoon. To make a detailed analysis, you need to write more. At least half as much as I do. I'm not afraid to write so that I can be analyzed from all sides.
And there's no need for that. It's all based on "maybe" anyway.
Added 3 minutes ago
Who framed Ment/guessed him based on clues?
Probably the one who posted the second clue on Heroist, and then blamed me for trying to solve the first clue on Heroist
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Одиночные сценарии Heroes V 3.1:
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Красный кристалл
Синий кристалл
Закат тьмы
Мультиплеерные карты для Heroes V 3.1:
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