Mafia 103. Ice and Ash

Probably because he's an asshole, or Toxic. And if the doctor is Toxic, that makes Rimpel's chances of being peaceful very slim.

Oh, right. My chances of being peaceful are not 60%, but 70%. We still have 3 mafia and 7 town members.

You're calculating incorrectly.
First, if you look at it from my perspective, there's one fewer town member around me, because one of the town members is me.
Second, I know the roles of the eliminated Yaschur incarnation 1 - Aurelius and Nefela - Flavius.
I don't know Visrita's role, or at least, it's not obvious with a sufficient degree of certainty.
I know that neither of the two displayed checkers, the cook, nor Esben are him.
Among the rest, he could basically be any peaceful role.
Yes, "brother" and "experienced in northern expeditions" point more towards Frithjof.
On the other hand, why can't we assume he's a blocker? Why wasn't the block mentioned in the newspaper?
And you're accusing me of not reading the roles. But you didn't read the priority – doubling the night action goes before the block (and the chain, but that's irrelevant), for example. So your reasoning isn't entirely correct.
That is, we have a doctor, an undisplayed checker, a cook, and Frithjof (yes, the absence of a block gives the probability of the blocker's death, and you can't deny that. This is for Rimpel.
For Vishmaster, the picture is slightly different, but you calculated the probability incorrectly, even taking into account that, theoretically, if he has one of these roles as his own, the chances are calculated slightly differently. But for himself, not in the game.
Now let's estimate what role Master could be, and what role he couldn't be.
For example, we can safely rule out the blocker – Master wouldn't skip the night action, I think.
An unhealed Nefela is a mistake by the doctor (or a clever plan by the doctor, that they won't kill someone they're going to heal/protect). Could Master have done that? I don't think so.
Doubling the night action over protection. At first glance, it's not the smartest move, because you can double a mafia kill, and Master himself admitted that his time is limited. Could Master be the cook, considering that Flavius was doubled, a highly probable role for Nefela? No.
Also, Master believes that Frithjof was eliminated in the form of Visrita. Could he be Frithjof? No, of course not.
So, I have slightly different probabilities for you. And I haven't written everything yet.

Added 4 minutes ago

And how am I mafia? There's no information about me in the newspaper, so either you have personal information about me from the night action (and even about me? you're really everywhere!), or some analysis of my behavior in the game. I think I explained why I suspect you. I'd like to know first why I'm a likely mafia member for you.

I asked how you're *not* mafia. You're trying to get me to accuse you.
But my answer is quite simple – you're in the remaining group.
Together with Master, Vish, Shaman, and Revan. I'm ignoring Tox for now, as I already wrote.
In general, I think there are two or three mafia members in this remaining group.
So, I'm calmly approaching this from another angle and asking you: what can you provide to confirm that you're not a mafia member?
Your behavior in the game is typical of a spoon. To make a detailed analysis, you need to write more. At least half as much as I do. I'm not afraid to write so that I can be analyzed from all sides.

Added 2 minutes ago

Yes, spreading votes to someone else will definitely be the best solution right now.

You should have thought about that earlier.
I won't support Rimpel – of course, there might be mafia there in theory, but I'm reasoning quite primitively: who framed Ment/provided evidence against him?
But the last votes don't matter, it was all clear then. On the contrary, it was worth expecting that some mafia member or two would support the vote for their partner.