Posts from Mafia 103. Ice and Ash Auto-translated

Well, I've made up my mind about the players and I'm ready to share my thoughts.

First, Uran.
Uran suffers from obsessive dictatorship. This could be a good thing, but at the same time, he operates with pseudo-logic, false premises, and presents players with versions of varying degrees of doubt, based on something in his head (or in the Mafia chat), as an undeniable truth. He also tears others down in order to convince everyone of his own peacefulness and righteousness, and even suggests that others come up with arguments in his favor, and even labels those who don't as Mafia. This is not just "bad rhetoric," as Revan said, it's not how you play in this town. I don't believe that a peaceful Uran could have such flawed rhetoric. The only assumption that could justify him is that Uran has gone off the rails due to constantly playing Mafia, especially considering that he mentioned he is currently playing several Mafia games at the same time. However, I doubt that his sanity is impaired, so...

Second, Rimpel.
On the very first day, a significant portion of his peaceful roles were eliminated. It's interesting to see his interaction with Uran that day, as well as what he initially wrote about him, later covering it up with an excuse about a mistake in the number of Mafia roles, which is very strange, since Uran always carefully reads the setup beforehand and asks questions about all the unclear details. I don't remember if Uran asked that specific question before the game, but that's not the point. In the previous game, I noticed that he might intentionally get confused about the details.
But I digress. So, on the first day, Uran started to nitpick at Rimpel, and then demonstratively stated that he was not a pair with him. This, by the way, later happened again with Ment. And in general, he talked about non-pairs often enough that it's hard to believe this is just a ruse. Ment was already in a bad position, and eliminating his teammate in this case is also in line with Uran's behavior, again, remembering the previous game. He started to unconditionally defend Rimpel, even though, according to the newspapers, he was still very likely Mafia, and even more so after Vistrit's death. Moreover, as an excuse, he attributes to him the solution of a clue, although what did Rimpel do? First, he saw that you could go directly from Whitehorse to Jack London. Thus, he himself first pointed out what he later blamed Master for. How is this to be understood? Then, the Mafia probably realized that the clue was easy and would be solved, and it was necessary to either obscure it with red herrings or lead to its solution and clear themselves at the expense of Ment. Rimpel first acted according to the first plan and threw in an obvious fake on Heroist, and then on Ment. But then, unexpectedly, Nefela appeared, who thwarted the plan by correctly solving the first clue. It became clear that Ment was in a very bad position, and therefore it was necessary to implement plan B. Notice how, as soon as Nefela posted, Uran and Rimpel immediately voted in sync. They probably didn't even bother to check the solution, since they knew it was correct.

Third, Neyra.
There doesn't seem to be much to say about her, her posts are quite peaceful, but there are a few points that seriously reduce her status. Uran also unconditionally defends her, it is unclear why, because there is nothing about her in the newspapers. Maybe because of the peacefulness of her posts? But this is like Uran saying "I'll just rely on the overall peacefulness of the posts" x) However, in the case of Neyra, I wouldn't trust her just because of that - it's too well remembered from the hundredth Mafia game, where the attitude towards her in the thread was the same, but there was no information in the newspapers. Heroist, I think, will agree with me.
But maybe Uran found out that Neyra is a town member from the results of his role cards? This is also strange, because I doubt that he could get results that would 100% clear three players - Rimpel, Neyra, and Heroist. Given Uran's Mafia status and Heroist's town status (which stems from the situation with Rimpel), I see the following situation - the core Mafia (Uran) pushes a passive town, convincing the town of his peacefulness, while surrounding himself with close "trusted" people - the three mentioned above, plus Nefela was also there earlier. Two Mafia to two town members, it's beautiful, it's good.

Conclusion. Either Uran or Rimpel should be executed, but definitely not Master. Which of the two? Uran is very dangerous as Mafia, but there is no newspaper information about him. There are almost no peaceful roles left for Rimpel, so statistically, he is very likely Mafia, even without all these points in the thread. So, execute Rimpel, and put Uran and Neyra in the block/on the chain at night, and we'll find out about them at the same time.

To be honest, even if everything is as it seems, and if we theoretically assume that somehow Ura and Rimpel (or one of them) are actually the Mafia, it won't change the situation. Starting to get confused now is the best way to help the Mafia, so I suggest we stick to the generally accepted assumptions and continue down that path, as we decided. What I'm getting at is, if these two individuals have indeed cleverly deceived the town while remaining at the top in terms of activity in the game, I can only wish them a well-deserved victory in this round, because they have definitely put in significantly more effort than at least three-quarters of the other players combined, regardless of which side they are actually on. If the town doesn't deserve to win, let it lose. If it does deserve to win, we'll continue with the same strategy as these past two days, and then we'll see.

Frankly, even if everything is as it seems, and if we theoretically assume that Uranus and Rimpel (or one of them) are actually the Mafia, it won't change the situation. Starting to get confused now is the best way to help the Mafia, so I suggest we stick to the generally accepted assumptions and continue down that path, as we decided. What I'm getting at is this: if these two individuals have indeed cleverly deceived the town while remaining at the top in terms of activity in the game, I can only wish them a well-deserved victory in this round, because they have definitely put in significantly more effort than at least three-quarters of the other players combined, regardless of which side they are actually on. If the town doesn't deserve to win, let it lose. If it does deserve to win, we'll continue with the same strategy as we have for the past two days, and then we'll see.

These commonly accepted suggestions actually come from the Mafia players. Blindly following them is simply foolish. If a town deserves to win, let it earn that win now, instead of catering to the Mafia's desires.

If Uranus, Rimpel, and Neira are really working together in the map, then I'm afraid the city is doomed... Even if we get lucky the next night, most of the city's inhabitants will need willpower and initiative, and their own opinions, but can you expect that from the current Vishmasters, Shamans, Revans, and others?

Nebos, when does the day end there?

What a bunch of jackals, attacking while Neira is asleep and Urian is gone. I'll go to the Conflux, maybe Ment will give me some advice on how to fend you off.

Okay, so who will bravely take on the responsibility of leading the town forward in this situation? I could, but after reading through the entire setting, I only see my role and a couple of mafia roles, so there's no point in me doing it. If there are other willing candidates, please step forward and save the town from defeat!!1 I'll be happy to read your analysis and support you in the vote. But for now, only the mafia are thinking and analyzing, as you say...

Nebos, when does the day end?