Posts from Mafia 54. This is where caravans are robbed!

Let's go back to our notes. We have the commander's note (let's assume it's accurate), which tells us the results of the emperor's checks on the 2nd and 3rd nights:

Menta's status - sharp, not compliant. Therefore, Spira's status - round, compliant, meaning he's a minion. Gura's status - either "sharp, compliant" or "round, not compliant," meaning he has the third, two caravans, and mafia roles left, excluding the king. 3/4, the risk is quite high.
Now, based on Spira's status, let's look at the notes from the second night:

Here, I made another assumption: that the real checker always signs with the same signature, which is rational and logical. That is, the second and third notes are accurate, which means all subsequent notes with that signature are also accurate. Let's move on, the third night:

The fourth night:

The signature is different, so we can assume that this note is for whitewashing, and the real status of Plesen is sharp, not compliant. Only one role remains - the king. If I made a mistake somewhere, please correct me.

Added 6 minutes ago
Now I understand why the commander killed Menta - they and the emperor decided to give us INFORMATION in a beautiful and unconventional way by comparing him with two people in the first nights).

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Vish, why are you consistently ignoring the other note from the mage, which is only confirmed by the emperor's comparisons? The Mafia could have just guessed with Spiro and Tkun, just to make it look like they were investigating. And they might have gotten lucky in terms of the information being plausible.

The possibility of executing the Elven King seems very tempting...

Although, I agree, the whole theory is rather shaky and adventurous, but I don't see any other options for the execution, sorry.

The commander suggested Gura as a candidate? Surely, the risk is lower there.

Ghur's suspiciousness is just the commander's subjective opinion, and there aren't that many peaceful roles assigned to him.

Zubr - does not obey
Nefela - does not obey
Slept through the third night
Sky - does not obey