Vish, why are you consistently ignoring the other note from the mage, which is only confirmed by the emperor's comparisons? The Mafia could have just guessed with Spiro and Tkun, just to make it look like they were investigating. And they might have gotten lucky in terms of the information being plausible.
Although, I agree, the whole theory is quite shaky and adventurous, but I don't see any other options for the execution. Sorry, but there's really a lack of evidence. If Mold turns out to be a Town role (depending on what kind, of course), then things will be really difficult, but for now, we have a commander, food, a first, and even weapons, albeit dormant - so there's still a chance.
The possibility of executing the Elven King seems very tempting...
To sell my soul