Posts from Mafia 107. Fever and Overdose Auto-translated

And yes, I'll cheer you up a bit – you're good, Nebo. You really are good... It just happens sometimes in life. It's a shame that bugs can't just get along with each other.

MasteR, I'm having trouble.

Two things are ruining my system:
1) The Fragment was blocked on nights 1 and 3;
2) The Mentalist was killed outright.

Maybe I calculated something wrong, but it seems to me that one of them is actually the Mother.

The problem is that if the Fragment is the mother, then the Mentalist turns out to be the monster...

Anyway, I'll check everything in more detail later, because I can't give it 100% of my attention right now.

Argh. I thought you had 100% accurate information about Fragment...
And you still haven't grasped the full scope of information about me, Crabby. Pay closer attention.
Execute Nebok while you're at it, please (sorry, Nebok).

Mom, I don't want to die....

Added 2 minutes later

Execute Nebk while you're at it, please (sorry, Nebok).

Yes, execute Nebk to preserve the Mafia's chances of winning.

I'll reread and review everything again later in the evening, and then I'll definitely write. For now, you can disregard what I said.

then the monster would be the Cop...

The Cop doesn't become a monster. The Cop becomes Vladik.

Added 29 minutes later

Here's what I'm thinking. We have an invincible Knight and Doctor duo. The Knight protects the Doctor, and the Doctor heals the Knight. The Mafia won't be able to do anything against this. As long as Mother is alive, the town will have a voting advantage. Vladik needs to protect Mother. Mother needs to try to catch the Reaper with an isolation vote. Meanwhile, the Former prays that Mother gets it right on the first try, or that the Mafia doesn't go after her. I hope the ultimate ability was used on someone suspicious.

And all of this is assuming we execute a monster today.

If the Mafia wants to kill Mother, they'll have to either go as Father, which will delay Mother's death by 1 night and allow her to be healed, or go and kill with the Reaper, in which case we can identify him through the isolation vote.

What do you think, is this a viable strategy?

There's also a theoretically possible stalemate where Father, Doctor, and Knight are the only ones left alive. The Doctor will "pacify" Father, and the Knight will kill him. Father will have to sit there and do nothing. And during the day, there will be a tie in the votes.

I'll think about the clues, but we still need to consider a few options. Because I don't seem to be very good at correctly deciphering clues. So, let's look at the range of our options. DAY 4: We execute the Monster or execute the Reaper. NIGHT 5: The Knight protects the Doctor, Vladik watches over Mom, the Doctor heals the Knight, and Mom tries to block the Reaper or the Monster (whichever wasn't executed during the day). The Mafia tries to go as the Reaper or the Monster (whichever is still alive), hoping that Mom will miss, or they use Dad's attack. If the Reaper is still alive, knowing our plan, they will try to kill the Ex (there's nothing else left). They can do this with Dad or with the Reaper himself. If the Monster is still alive, they can kill the Ex or use their ultimate ability on Mom (then Vladik will die, although Mom will survive. It's important that the Ex doesn't go to Mom, please pay attention to this. For certainty, the Ex can skip their turn altogether; in any case, we'll have enough information during the day, well, if the Monster is still alive). DAY 5: In the best-case scenario, no one dies; in the worst-case scenario, the Ex or Vladik dies. Or the Ex might be beaten but still alive. The town has 5 to 6 votes during the day. During the day, the roles of Dad and the remaining Mafia member are definitely known. We can execute Dad (which won't give us anything right now). We can execute the remaining Mafia member. If we execute the remaining Mafia member, then NIGHT 6: The Knight attacks Dad, the Doctor heals Mom, Vladik either happily sleeps in the grave or protects the Ex just for fun. And that seems to be a win. Because during the day, in the worst case, the town has 4 votes (if Vladik/the Ex and the Doctor are gone), and the Mafia has 1 vote in any case. On DAY 6, Dad is executed for the first time, and the Knight attacks him (if Dad reveals himself and tries to kill Mom, he will die). On DAY 7, Dad is executed for the second time. Finally. If we (don't) execute Dad, then NIGHT 6 ALTERNATIVE: Mom blocks the Reaper/Monster (it's now definitely known), and the Knight attacks Dad. Mom might be beaten in some scenarios, but it doesn't matter anymore – Dad is killed by the Knight, and there are enough town members to execute the remaining Mafia member. If Dad just sits still at night and doesn't do anything, we proceed with the plan in the previous paragraph. Something like that. If we assume that we fully know the Mafia members and all the town roles (I think the Mafia members are Yaschur, Revan, and Nebo, and Nebo is obviously not Dad), then there is a winning strategy. If we're wrong about Revan-Fragment, that's a shame. But it's unlikely. I think it's unlikely right now. Unless Crabby comes with information and manages to convince us otherwise.

Correction: on DAY 5, it may not be definitively known who the father is and who the remaining Mafia member is (if no one has died and the former player doesn't have new information, this cannot be immediately determined), which is why we have two alternatives for NIGHT 6.

The former cannot be defeated now, as they were killed by the Reaper.

I suspect two players of being the Reaper: Revan and Yashur.

As for the father of three, I suspect Revan, Yashur, and Fragment (well, theoretically, but it's unlikely considering the events of nights 1 and 3).

If I haven't made any mistakes, eliminating the monster will provide a winning strategy.

Added after 50 seconds
And yes, if the former had used their ultimate ability correctly, they would have immunity now.

The previous one cannot be defeated now because it was killed by a Reaper.

It's not possible now. Tomorrow, the newly opened father might be able to.

Just in case, keep this in mind for your plans, Master. Note that the healed Warlord/Knight will still have their original defense after being attacked by the Reaper, if they had it before.

Thanks to Lokken for helping to find the hypocrite. In the end, it turned out worse for him, but what can you do.

Now, we just need to not mess it up and execute the mafia member who isn't the father.

Execute Heaven.

Heaven, I understand it's not easy to get back into the game after being kicked out on the second day (I still think such things are unfair), but you should have tried last day... Probably not, but maybe it wouldn't be so clear-cut now.

Added after 33 seconds
Ment, I saw your plan, I'll think about it later.

I'm slowly getting back into it.

Master, on the second night of the PSL, Ment was blocked, but Vladik was watching Morning.

I think I've known from the beginning who Ment is, but he's acting strangely for that role. Or maybe it's just my impression.

I calmly finished my chart, and now everything makes sense. I don't know what I messed up the first time that I almost became Mafia myself.

Execute Nebo, that's the best option right now.

Added 14 minutes later
Guard cancel!

I'm leaning towards Fragment being Mafia.
But I'm very confused by the fact that he was blocked for two out of four nights. Is this some kind of mind game that I don't understand? Why waste one of two night actions on camouflage?

Besides, if he's Mafia, he can't be Father (the role is taken by Yashur), Liar (Mystiar), or Reaper (he was blocked on the night Ment was killed).

So, we need to execute Fragment...

Not a PSL player, but a hypocrite, just saying...
Krabby, make sure you understand all the roles correctly. Although our winning strategy doesn't really depend on you personally, it's still worth checking (because if you're not sure, Gumer might mess it up, and we don't want that).

Protection cancel!

I keep coming back to the idea that Fragment is Mafia.
But I'm very confused by the fact that he was blocked for two out of four nights. Are these some kind of mind games that I don't understand? Why waste one of two night actions on camouflage?

Besides, if he's Mafia, he can't be Father (the role is taken by Yashur), Liar (Mystiar), or Reaper (he was blocked on the night Ment was killed).

So, we need to execute Fragment...

When did Yashur manage to take on the role of Father?
Krabby, one more time. Pay attention.