Posts from Mafia 107. Fever and Overdose Auto-translated

Judging by my table, the Master has the highest chance of being a bad guy – 1 in 4.
Besides, I don't trust him anyway.

Fragment, I suggest we execute MasteR, but if you have other options and ideas, I'd be happy to read them.

BZV, the orchestra was conducted by Sergey Zhilin, but what does that give us?

You've already caused a lot of trouble with your tables, psychology, and executions. I was almost kicked out, but PSL was kicked out instead. It's time you listened to me at least once.

Okay, let's do it this way, no arguments. We wouldn't have eliminated you; the voting clearly showed that. But they immediately piled on Freud. Master, I urge you not to complain, but finally write a direct analysis. Who is Nefela? And please name four Mafia members. Sky and three others, since you're rooting for Sky. Sorry for being harsh, but I'm really a bit annoyed after all these half-hints... Here's a cat for that:

Okay, let's do it this way, no arguments. We wouldn't have eliminated you; the voting clearly showed that. But they immediately piled on Freud.
Master, I urge you not to complain but to finally write a direct analysis. Who is Nefela?
And please name four Mafia players. Sky and three others, since you're rooting for Sky.
Sorry for being harsh, but I'm really a bit annoyed after all these half-hints...
Here's a cat for that:

That's all for tomorrow. Let's do it yourself today. So far, all you've done is essentially indulge in wishful thinking, so please try harder.

Another attempt to shift the blame. Tomorrow is tomorrow, and I will continue working on it tomorrow as well. For now, let's punish the Master. Then we'll see. But for now, that's the plan.

 

With your tables, psychology, and threats of punishment, you've already caused a lot of trouble. They almost got me kicked out, but instead, they kicked PSL out. It's time you listened to me at least once.

Funny, considering it was you who started the argument with Freud.

It would be very stupid if you were actually from the city, but I don't see any other options right now.

Execute MasteR

I'm almost certain that Fragment was simply blocked. Bar is lying around drunk; if drugs were involved, the description would definitely be different.

I wonder why the Mafia went after Ment. It's a very strange choice. Could it be that they redirected the Reaper?

Are you the Lizard from day one? Is there a simpler and more plausible explanation? I can give you a hint, but it's probably obvious anyway.

Couldn't fall asleep, unfortunately...
Otherwise, it's a no-brainer. Why am I worried, there's no town.
The players are me, Gumer, Crabby, and Fragment. There's a fifth player. I hope it's Locke; if not, I'll shake his hand after the game.
Nefela used to be in the game.
Sky is a maniac. With his death, the last hope for that town is gone.
The game is open. Let's go.
(There's a scenario where Locke is also Mafia, of course, or at least has a good chance of being Mafia. To figure this out, I want to wait for his analysis of today's newspaper, as well as Fragment's, and whoever else wants to contribute. The Master certainly won't, he has no reason to).
(A complete analysis, down to the last detail).
(And yes, I'm ready to execute not only the Master, because I still suspect the Master is the Godfather. Maybe I'm wrong. If the Master is the Godfather, Locke's chances of being innocent increase, but that's just information).

Ment, I think that Nefela is actually Vladik. And I still don't understand why Sky is a maniac :( We need to solve the clue. I've been sitting here for an hour and haven't found anything useful yet, although it seems to me that there will be something super obvious there.

There's a theory that Master is Mafia with a high probability. Day 1: He starts a rumor about the father, who is sitting out without immunity. Day 2: He pushes for the idea that it's better to quietly sit out the day and deal with the suspected Townie, "Sky," the next day. Only when the execution of someone becomes inevitable does he suggest an inactive player. Yes, that player would get a modkill, but they wouldn't be able to defend themselves from execution. Furthermore, Master suggested that we run checks/isolations on him so that we could be sure he wasn't dangerous. Day 3: The father remains inactive for protection, while simultaneously attempting to get "Mental" killed, as his role has been identified. The father's inactivity on this day, after yesterday's suspicions, and the reasoning about the father on the first day, fits well with Master's last name. He also didn't have immunity at the start, and he himself started the idea that the father, without immunity, could be sitting out – which I then developed. In this theory, I don't see a Mafia move on the second day – it's possible to assume a hit/redirect to a natural defense or a Reaper move on "Sky," who was isolated by the Mother's ultimate ability that night. Considering that there was no kill from the Mafia on the first night, and the PSL move was on "Sky," it's logical to assume that he is Townie with a non-zero probability, given the lack of other data. Hence, yesterday's desire to hang him at all costs during the day, while the Mafia team remains in full force. There's also a counter-theory that the absence of a kill on the second night is because "Sky" is Mafia; in this case, Master's Mafia status is questionable – not definitively, but it is. This theory is countered by the rhetoric of yesterday and today (I didn't like the comment about "Mental" at all; in my opinion, it's straightforward). In this case, the Townie remains undefined. By the way, regarding the kill, I don't think it was Vladik. The description is ambiguous – it could be him, or it could be "Executioner of Thieves" (EOT), purely based on the role descriptions, it seems more like the latter. In this case, what we see in the text are two halves of a clue. But, given how it's described, it could also be one. I'll try to guess tomorrow. Furthermore, Vladik should have lost one protection somewhere because the Townie doesn't have a piercing ability. This could have been in one of the previous nights, and in that case, it wouldn't have been described in the newspaper; it's possible that this was even the Mafia's move on the second night – if not on "Sky." In general, there are too many variables; the EOT option is much stronger. And a question for Tox (or anyone else, if it was already asked during player selection, I didn't read those posts): should Vladik's maiming of the killer be described in the newspaper? And the Mother's death would definitely not be described like that – I don't see the point in trying to deceive and somehow smooth over this fact at this stage of the game, especially since there's no one to deceive. We definitely need to analyze the clue, but we should hang a Mafia member. Considering what they could have figured out in these days, and what abilities their roles have, including ultimates, I don't think that identifying the Townie (who isn't being executed) is a priority today. This is what Master sensed and what he reacted to in post #265. For now, execute Master.

And a question for Tox (or anyone else, if it has already been asked during player selection, I haven't read those posts): should the maiming of the murderer by Vlad be described in the newspaper?

No, it shouldn't. If someone kills Vlad, then at the beginning of the night, I come to him in a private message and tell him that this role is inactive for that night. Even ultimates cannot be used.

Guys, either I'm going crazy, or we need to find the Prince.
https://prnt.sc/v4xrw6

Added 10 minutes ago
Save me, solve the clue....

https://prnt.sc/v4xx1m
Looks like Prince of Persia?

There's also a counter-theory, suggesting that the absence of a second-night kill is because Sky is Mafia. In this case, Master's Mafia status is questionable – not definitively, but it is.

Here's a thought on this: if Sky is Mafia, he could be the Godfather, and Master could be another Mafia member. With their current advantage, the Mafia might try a bold move and seemingly sacrifice Master during the day, and then Master can claim he was advocating for the "villain." The Godfather won't be executed on the first try, nothing will happen to him at night, and then it won't matter as much – the Mafia will eliminate the Mother, the Hypocrite has a mark, the Monster has a mass mark, so there will be ways to ensure the execution happens, especially since PSL is dead.
In this scenario, with Sky as Mafia, we have the execution of a Mafia member prevented, full protection for the Godfather, and all Mafia members are safe.
In the scenario where Sky is the Godfather, we have the execution of the Godfather prevented, all Mafia members are safe, and protection for the Mafia member.
In the scenario where Master is the Godfather, we have the execution of the Godfather prevented, all Mafia members are safe, and protection for the Mafia member.
In the scenario where Master is another Mafia member, we have a Mafia member executed and protection for both the Godfather and the Mafia member.

Even with this scheme, it's still mathematically more advantageous to execute Master than Sky. Of course, this is based on the assumption that he is Mafia, but at the moment, I personally need a strong argument to deny this. Not because of Freud's execution itself, but because of all the related factors.


I just want to point out this possible (not definitive) scenario so that it's immediately clear.

Crabby, Ment, Master, Loken. Hi, mafiosi. How are you doing? Did you miss me? You are not needed right now. I need Father. **Execute Morning.** Goodbye, Dad. Gumer, Mesteer, Revan, Nebo, Yashur. Meet the mafia: Crabby - Hypocrite Ment - Reaper Master - Monster Loken - Father Hang Loken. Today, Father must be executed; other candidates are not accepted. However, there is something to discuss – the Night Defense plan. First, a message to the maniac. Dear doppelganger, tonight is decisive. Father will not be executed on the first try, so there will be no execution tonight. If a mafia member does not die tonight, they win. But Father must be executed because he will no longer kill, he will become invulnerable to killing, and he will get a double vote when killing Mother. Help get rid of Father. Kill a mafia member tonight. Otherwise, you will be left with the scraps of the city in front of the entire mafia team and lose immediately. I don't know who you are yet, so you will have a chance to win if you take care of the mafia. Knight and doppelganger, shoot Master. Doppelganger, remove his food protection with a taunt. It is important that you both shoot the monster! One of you may be taken out by the Hypocrite's ultimate ability, but you will not both be blocked. Doc, you healed a mafia member today. Congratulations. But you have a chance to make amends. Transfer Ment's Night Defense. If I am wrong and the monster is him, not Master, then the monster's protection will let all the killings through. Reaper is crippled by Vladik and will not be able to do anything tonight. Board game players, stay home for your own good. If anyone has their own ideas about possible adjustments to the plan, now is the time to share them.

I had an emotionally charged evening yesterday, which affected my messages here. If I offended anyone, I apologize.

 

Now, to the point.

On the Town side, there's only one peaceful role – the Doctor, two Mafia roles – the Reaper and the Monster, and one Neutral role.

Now, a little from my perspective.

I have a general idea of who is playing the Neutral role, and it's not Town. I'm not sure who is playing the Doctor, but it's also not Town. At the very least, I hope the Doctor is aware that I chose the right target.

As for those who want me to explain in more detail why I voted to eliminate Town, what kind of answer are you expecting?

Do you expect me to magically deduce all the peaceful roles from invisible clues in the newspapers? Or maybe I should reveal my super-duper chart, which shows that Town is definitely Mafia? Or pull 10 perfect clues out of a vacuum?

 

But I can still give some hints. For example, pay attention to my rhetoric over the past few days. I hinted at the high probability of Town being Mafia on the first day, carefully wrapping it up in an analysis of the newspapers (eliminating roles from those who were blocked). Moreover, I emphasized that the probability of Town being a negative role is higher than that of Fragment.

On the second day, I continued to subtly hint at eliminating Town, trying not to give myself away too much. I had a normal plan – to wait for Town to return from the countryside and try to persuade everyone to vote for his elimination, or for the elimination of another Mafia member if I could identify him. But what was definitely not part of my plans was Crabbi's untimely and ill-timed investigation, and the fact that Fragment decided to eliminate someone on the second day for information (well, they eliminated someone and got a "ton" of information). From that moment on, I had to reveal myself and even openly state my plans. At the moment, I have no choice but to tank as Town, because that's essentially the only normal chance now to prevent the Town from losing. I really didn't want things to turn out this way, and I won't be surprised if the Mafia expresses dissatisfaction after the game, but I have just as much reason to be dissatisfied.

 

Before you reject this information outright, try to reread the setting carefully. Then reread the events of the nights. Try to put yourself in the shoes of a potential peaceful role that I have. Understand why I acted the way I did, why I had that plan, why I reacted that way to Crabbi, and why I am so confident now that Town is Mafia. If you still don't have any insights, then I don't even know, maybe it's impossible to get through to you.

 

Regarding the elimination, I made my decision a long time ago, before the day even started, and I announced it. I'm not going to change it. I already went along with this stupid idea the previous day, and I ended up being the scapegoat in this story. You can convince yourselves 10 times that I'm Mafia, but the point is that without my vote, it will be impossible to eliminate a Mafia member now, but it will be very easy to eliminate a peaceful player.

Crabbi, if the events of the second night are preventing you from believing me (if I'm not mistaken about you), then I understand why. Reread the setting; there are nuances that could have led to exactly that result. If you don't understand what I'm talking about, then forget about it.

 

Well, Fragment, what is this massive blunder? It’s good that you took the time to explain how to save and kill everyone, but you only made one mistake – in assigning the roles. For example, Cop is definitely not Reaper. Father, Hypocrite, Monster – okay, but not Cop. I, of course, am definitely not Mafia. And most importantly, Morning (is that Locken, right?) is not Father. Again, he might be Reaper, but not Father. What a joke. What a nerve. End of story. Try to explain why you assigned the roles the way you did, and you’ll see that it doesn’t add up. The most obvious thing is that Reaper killed Cop last night, and the deceased’s face was absolutely serene, as if he had seen something beautiful before he died. How could you possibly conclude that Cop is Reaper?))) I hope your post was just a morning ramble, so I’ll still try to play with you. Right now, I would suggest trying to solve the murder clue – finding out the name of the Maniac wouldn’t be so bad.

Added 9 minutes later
MasteR, I understand what you’re getting at, but I already have another “candidate” for your role, so it doesn’t quite fit. Basically, here’s what we have: On the first day, you organize everything clearly and concisely. On the second day, you’re almost getting confused in your own words, suggesting not to execute anyone for information, and then you execute PSL yourself. The third day is even more confusing for me; it’s like 2020 is happening again, and Fragment has already finished the game. It’s very bad that we can’t seem to get our act together and make any decisions, because if we have a couple more nights like this, the Mafia will win