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Posts from Mafia 107. Fever and Overdose Auto-translated

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#183
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*I don't understand.
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I think you're missing a point that has already been made. The Mafia doesn't need to put on a show, lead people down false trails, and so on. There is no trail at the moment. There simply isn't one. And the lack of votes speaks to this. They can kill without leaving any evidence, and there's nothing that can be done about it. The Mafia has an advantage, and there's no need for them to take risks, expose themselves, or come up with something during the day. The town is defensively losing in the long run anyway. Isn't this obvious?
With this scheme, your Mafia role, Lock, is likely to be eliminated, because why would they start suspecting a Master for good reason if he remains silent? That's not typical of him.
I won't even mention that there's no point in playing as the Mafia to win in a mediocre way, thanks to their own passivity and the town's passivity. Everyone traditionally wants a beautiful victory.
 

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#185
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Ment
*I don't understand. With this scheme, there's a good chance that only your Mafia role will be eliminated, Lock, because why would they start suspecting a Master when he's being quiet? That's not typical of him.
Not to mention that there's no point in playing as Mafia to barely win, thanks to your own passivity and the town's passivity. Everyone traditionally wants a beautiful victory.

Well, it's a hopeless situation. If you behave as usual, it's "too much talk," "you're confusing the town." If you behave like Freud (it's interesting what kind of discussion would be going on in the thread in this case) - "somehow passive," "it's not typical," "suspicious."

Let's calmly wait for Nebo to return from his dacha, calmly send him to the gallows, get the necessary information, and proceed from there. After Krabby's throw-in, I became even more confident that a Mafia/Man is currently working hard in the field.

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#186
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Tushe, Revan...
But some still want a beautiful victory.
I don't understand who Crabby is siding with, but in any case.
I propose hypothesis 0: Master, Nefela, Lynx/Gumer/Revan (pick 2). Gumer is a given if he's lying about his role, which is likely, as he didn't even receive warnings from the GM (while Tox did). But on the other hand, Tox might be quite loyal, so who knows...
The rest are based purely on their interactions with the Master in the thread. And of course, everywhere, subjective persuasiveness or its absence is taken into account.
Execute the Master.
 

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#187
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Well, it's a hopeless situation. If you act normally, it's "too much talk," "you're confusing the town." If you act like Freud (I wonder what kind of discussion would be going on in the thread in that case), it's "somehow passive," "not typical," "suspicious."
Hold on. Show me who is specifically blaming you for talking too much, and not for confusing the town. These are different things.
From my side, the complaint is not really about the first or the second. A good Mafia player doesn't directly lie; they offer plausible versions but leave loopholes for themselves to later carry out subtle manipulations when the opportunity arises. Or right now.
That is, for example, the consistent attacks on Nebk could also be such a manipulation, as he is not 100% negative yet, although he is likely to be. Here is one of (many) (not necessarily correct, but why not) hypotheses: tomorrow, we won't see the father's murder in the newspaper, and you know that, so you can say, "Well, there's no better candidate for execution, let's go, guys, that's our way out."
Or maybe Nebo is really negative, but he's a red herring?
The only thing I don't like about all this is that I know about myself that I really like to look for complexity in simplicity, and all these super-plans and loopholes that I've come up with for the Mafia may not apply to real life.
But I can't stop now, help me.
 

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#188
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Evil Lizard
What was wrong with Lizard's rhetoric?

Again, it's subjective. When I was considering the possible actions of the mafia in the first night, I naturally only took the most likely ones from all possible options. You added another, less likely option of your own. It seemed to me like a subtle attempt to steer the discussion away from the Heaven-mafia option. And in general, even without any information, you seemed to be less active than usual, and I remember that you don't really like playing as the mafia.



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Ment
A good mafia player doesn't lie directly; they offer plausible versions but leave themselves loopholes to later carry out subtle manipulations when the opportunity arises. Or right now.
That is, for example, a consistent attack on Nebka could also be such a manipulation, as he is not yet 100% negative, although he is likely to be. Here is one of (many) (not necessarily correct, but why not) hypotheses: tomorrow we will not see the father's murder in the newspaper, and you know this, so you can say "Well, okay, there is no better candidate for execution, let's go, guys, this is our chance."
Or maybe Nebo is really negative, but is he the killer?

Okay. Let's reason from this perspective. Let's say I'm mafia. How would I know that Nebo is the killer? How could I possibly know? If Nebo turns out to be a town member, why would I put myself in such a vulnerable position as the mafia?

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#189
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Morning
Ultimately, are you for skipping the day or for executing someone based on suspicion?
Isn't it obvious?
Morning
Master seemed suspicious to me from the first day, considering the mentioned scheme about one or two active mafia members, which he could fit into (in principle, any player who participates in the game, rather than sitting silently, is obviously exposing themselves, and then you can analyze what exactly they are saying), and based on his reasoning about staying quiet and not using his special ability. But upon further consideration, this theory didn't seem like a 100% shot in the dark, and many of his current arguments coincide with my thoughts. More likely peaceful than mafia. You seem to be missing a point that has already been made. The mafia has no need to put on a show, lead people down false trails, and so on. There is no trail at the moment. Just none. And the lack of votes speaks to this. Their role kills without leaving any clues, and there's nothing that can be done about it. The mafia has an advantage, and there's no need for them to expose themselves, get caught, or come up with something during the day. The town will not win defensively in the long run anyway. Isn't this obvious?
Here's the problem. If the mafia insists on not giving the town any clues, then we need to create those clues ourselves. Master has made it clear that he doesn't intend to do that. You're willing to execute Mentor, but who else? Well, let's say me. No one else has spoken up, and there's no advantage over Master. What other candidates were suggested, the inactive players? But Master doesn't even want to execute them; he doesn't want to execute anyone at all, and this goes against what I want. A player who ruined today's discussion with his posts, only to skip the day in the end? This is unacceptable, in my opinion, and that's why I'm executing him now, not just for being active, as some people think. In short, if Master doesn't change his mind, then neither will I. If you think that executing Master is just for information, we'll see. In any case, the town will get information when he's executed, but if it hesitates and flounders, it will only get another body with no clues on the next night.
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#190
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Well, in general, even without any information, you haven't been very active, and I remember that you don't like playing Mafia.
That's actually a +10. In general, I suggest that everyone write down their hypotheses for a full set of four Mafia players in the near future. Since the discussions today are quite active, everyone should be able to say something in general, rather than in specific terms. It's absolutely not guaranteed to be correct, but it's still useful.
 

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#191
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Fragment
In short, if the Master doesn't change his mind, then neither will I.

I won't change my mind. You're pushing things where it's not needed. Right now, it's just unnecessary.

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#192
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Okay, let's reason it out from this perspective. Let's say I'm Mafia. How would I know that Heaven is the Serial Killer? How can I possibly know? If Heaven turns out to be a Town member, why would I put myself in such a vulnerable position as Mafia? Hmm?
Yes, you can't know for sure, that's true.
If they're Town, that's even better. I've already suggested the theory that you're the Godfather. Even if you're not, Mafia clearly benefits from this, only executing someone on the fourth night, and if you are the Godfather, on the fifth. And it's not that difficult to defend yourself at night (as the Godfather – automatically). The Serial Killer might be the one messing things up, if it's not Heaven.
 

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#194
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Ment
Yeah, you can't know for sure, that's true.
If he's Town, that's even better. I've already suggested that you're the Godfather. Even if you're not, the Mafia is clearly doing well after that, only someone gets executed on the fourth night, and if you are the Godfather, it's on the fifth, and it's not that difficult to defend yourself at night (the Godfather does it automatically). But the Serial Killer might mess things up if he's not Town.

It's too confident to be burned on the fourth night, even for such a setup. And for what? To execute a "possible Townie" who can't even be a key role for the Town?

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#195
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MasteR
I'm not changing my mind. You're pushing things where it's not needed. Right now, it's just unnecessary.
But I think it is necessary. What makes you think it's not needed? Do you have some brilliant strategy for how to defeat the Mafia and its Godfather without any information?
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#196
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Ment
I propose hypothesis 0: Master, Nefeela, Lynx/Gumer/Revan (pick 2).
You forgot to include yourself, Mr. I_don't_believe_in_Nefeela's_peacefulness :P

But seriously, I don't really believe Ment is Mafia. Maybe 30%.

For me, Gumer and whoever else appearing 15 minutes before the day closes on the first day, and with only one or two messages that day, looks like a nudge in the Mafia chat.

I haven't gotten to my table yet, but how someone calculated that Master is 100% Mafia, and why someone else agreed with that – it all seems unclear.
But I haven't thought about whether this is even possible yet; first, I need to at least get to the paper and start thinking...
Каждому будет дано по его вере

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#197
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Fragment
Isn't it obvious? The problem is this: if the mafia insists on not letting the town get any clues, then we need to take matters into our own hands and create those clues ourselves. The Master has made it clear that he doesn't intend to do that. You're willing to execute Mental, but who else? Well, let's say I am. No one else has spoken up, and there's no advantage to be gained by targeting the Master. What other candidates were suggested, the inactive ones? But the Master doesn't even want to execute them; he doesn't want to execute anyone, and that goes against what I want. Is it acceptable for a player who ruined today's discussion with his posts to skip a day? In my opinion, it's not, and that's why I'm executing him now, not just for being active, as some people seem to think. In short, if the Master doesn't change his mind, neither will I. If you think executing the Master is just for show, we'll see. Either way, the town will get information from the execution. If he continues to stall and hesitate, he'll just end up with another corpse without any clues for the next night.
I agree that a no-night-kill (nnk) isn't ideal because I don't see any progress towards a future where the information situation will change. Let's say we spend a night and a day checking or eliminating a mana user; that's important, but it won't get us any closer to identifying the mafia, who can still kill without leaving any clues. Sooner or later, they'll use a powerful ability on a monster or neutralize a knight, and they'll target the mother. No matter how you look at it, in the long run, this is a guaranteed loss. But I specifically don't like executing the Master because there are players who seem more suspicious to me, and I've listed them. I don't remember how he usually plays, according to Mental; I'll assume it's 70-30, where 70 is more or less obvious, and 30 is something left unsaid, which is a perfectly acceptable mafia tactic.
Therefore, executing the Master seems like just an "execution for information." Master, if you're mafia, you've deceived me, congratulations. If not, then... you see where the discussion is going. They're not giving us any breathing room.
My sword, my trusted ally, unphased by my aspect.