He could go and harm some archlich and, while checking, run into the same dog. I think that's just as logical, right?
No, he couldn't. The maniac had 2 nights to check statuses. He wouldn't just randomly poke around, especially on the third night. There seems to be only one character with the dog status, also a mafia member, but who cannot be harmed. If the maniac focused on him, he would go to him again on the next night, but then he wouldn't have time to harm the dog. So, the only correct option is that he harmed the dog on the third night, was blocked on the following night, and finished what he started on the fifth night.
Added 1 minute ago
Seriously, if we kill the blonde, it's almost a guaranteed win.
The clue has been solved! I don't understand what else you need.
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You can download the set of 3 Campaigns (English version) here
Одиночные сценарии Heroes V 3.1:
Незваные гости
Красный кристалл
Синий кристалл
Закат тьмы
Мультиплеерные карты для Heroes V 3.1:
Легендарная война
Сердце вулкана
Передел мира