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For Putin, it's the ultimate thrill to mock the people and openly declare it, like "what can you do to me? you can't do anything...". This is a monster, not a human being.
That's why I made the disclaimer about conspiracy theories – Chipstone often sees planning where there is actually skillful adaptation to the situation, creating the illusion of a plan.
In reality, it was most likely like this: the scenario described by Chipstone was considered as one of the possible options, but they didn't bet on it; they worked on several options at once. In the end, this particular option worked out.
There was evidence that Putin knew two months ago that the agreement in Vilnius would not be signed, and that street unrest would follow.
But did it work out?! :confused: I doubt it even existed. As with other options. Putin and Yanukovych are not the type to conspire; rather, it was an adaptation to the situation, but not a very successful one for either side. Judging by their expressions at the press conference in Tver, they themselves did not expect to end up in such a mess. No, perhaps Putin had some plans, but that doesn't apply to Yanukovych. He's just flitting between ATMs. :D Regarding the further development of events, it's complete nonsense. First, what is "eliminating the Maidan non-violently"? How is that even possible? Second, if this is all Putin's cunning plan, then he miscalculated a bit: in Russia, the electorate can be kept under control indefinitely, but this doesn't always work in Ukraine (the author somehow forgets that, in addition to presidents, there are also peoples who elected them. In general, it seems that in Russia, no one is familiar with the concept of the expression of will), and judging by what is happening on the Maidan, their agreements have failed. Yanukovych is already a political corpse; everyone has turned away from him (there was news that there is a Schism in his party, which is probably why he started stammering more often – the guy got drunk). And the new government will definitely revise these agreements (is this scenario provided for?). In short, it's not all that rosy...
Ihtiandr
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Repressions have also become commonplace. I recently saw the final statement in court of Daniil Konstantinov, an opposition activist, who has already been in prison for 2 years. They want to charge him with murder and sentence him to 10 years of strict imprisonment. The speech is long, but it's worth watching; it made a strong impression on me. Such a great person is being held behind bars for nothing...
Since the boat swayed in the right direction, it means it worked. If it sways back later, it means someone calculated the situation further.
I doubt it even existed.
It may have existed, or it may not have; we will only find out from memoirs, and even then, it's not a certainty. But it was more likely to have existed, as Putin, by his nature, is not inclined to get involved in adventures; he only acts after preparing thoroughly on all fronts.
Just like the other options. Putin and Yanukovych are not the kind of guys to conspire.
Why is that? Judging by the lack of outcry from both sides and the back-and-forth movements during the negotiations and related actions, they had some preliminary agreements. What exactly they were is unknown, but this whole story is completely different from something played out from scratch.
For example, Putin's negotiations with Tymoshenko were much more impromptu.
Regarding the further development of events, it's complete nonsense. First, what is "eliminating the Maidan without force"?!
It's described in detail there.
How is that even possible? Secondly, if this is all Putin's cunning plan, then he miscalculated a bit: in Russia, the electorate can be kept under control indefinitely, but this doesn't always work in Ukraine (the author somehow forgets that, in addition to presidents, there are also the people who elected them. In general, it seems that in Russia, no one is familiar with the concept of the expression of will), and judging by what is happening on the Maidan, their agreements have failed.
For some reason, it seems to me that the issue here is not the electorate, but a different state policy.
For example, in Moscow-2011, people also expressed their will, and the authorities did not particularly interfere, but it turned out not very well... and all without any repression, dispersal, breaking dishes, and so on. They came out, held a rally, chatted on the Internet and in kitchens, most people realized that they shouldn't have gotten involved in this at all, and the process simply faded away.
Yanukovych is already a political corpse; everyone has turned away from him (there was news that there was even a Schism in his party, which is probably why he started stammering more often - the guy got drunk), and the new government will definitely revise these agreements (is this scenario provided for?). In short, it's not all that rosy...
I'm not up to date on that, but in any case, Yanukovych's problems are Yanukovych's problems.
You were talking about paranoia, right?)) It's not worth starting a discussion without knowing what's going on there. If you want to know, here's a constant live stream from the scene:
Ihti, don't make me laugh. I actually go there every other day and sometimes chat with the locals. And a large part of them don't even know why they're there. Ousting Yanukovych and rushing to Europe is understandable, but what's next? And then it's just vague mumbling or a stupor.
Although, you in Vladivostok probably have a better view...
Why is that? Judging by the lack of screaming from both sides and the absence of frantic movements back and forth during the negotiations and related actions, they had some preliminary agreements. What exactly they were is unknown, but this whole story doesn't resemble a scenario played out from scratch.
It's unlikely that these were agreements. Yanukovych desperately needs money, and he doesn't care where it comes from (the EU didn't provide it, it seems things aren't great with China either, but Putin is offering). So he's playing along with Putin, and Putin is simply taking advantage of the situation. However, it's not entirely clear what he's planning and what he expects to achieve in the future. Yanukovych will take the money and won't fulfill the agreements (you'll see: he'll get the money, and the issue of association will resurface if he lives that long...).
Wicc
It's described in detail there.
I didn't notice... Can you insert a quote? Wicc
For some reason, I think this isn't about the electorate, but about a different state policy.
For example, in Moscow-2011, people also expressed their will, and the authorities didn't particularly interfere, but it didn't turn out very well... and that was without any repression, crackdowns, breaking things, etc. They came out, held a rally, chatted online and in kitchens, and most people realized that they shouldn't have gotten involved in the first place, and the process simply fizzled out.
This depends on the electorate. It's not quite like Moscow (as I wrote above), it won't just fizzle out. It seems like things are serious there. They will either achieve their goals, or there will be a coup or a bloodbath. In any case, the president and the government are living out their last days. The only question is how long they can prolong this...
Wicc
I'm not aware of that, but in any case, Yanukovych's problems are Yanukovych's problems.
Well, I wouldn't say that. And how, I wonder, will Putin achieve his goals without Yanukovych (what did they even agree on?). He'll have to start from scratch. That's why he took precautions, saying that they will review gas prices every quarter. In general, the game has begun: who can hurt the other more.
Oh! News broke that the government will not make concessions to the opposition. They are disrupting the vote on the law on releasing participants in mass protests from criminal prosecution. They're planning something, those bastards. Bold! Could it be that Putin promised to send troops if necessary?! He's not a fool. Trouble is brewing...
Ihtiandr
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Vatya
I go there every other day.
And you didn't see the public gathering that's in the video?)) Or you saw it, but the video is still fake? Maybe the entire Maidan is fake, and it only seems real? You definitely didn't mention paranoia for no reason)) Vayta
It's understandable to remove Yanukovych and rush towards Europe, but what happens next?
This is the psychology of a slave - the fear of change. It's better to stay in complete misery than to break free, because it's more peaceful. Yes, freedom is responsibility, but if you're afraid of it and avoid it, you'll be a slave your whole life. Freedom is expensive, but it's worth it.
This is the psychology of a slave – the fear of change. It's better to remain in a complete mess than to break free, because it's more peaceful. Yes, freedom is responsibility, but if you fear it and avoid it, you will remain a slave your whole life. Freedom is expensive, but it's worth it.
Personally, I am against such changes. I had enough of 1990 and 2004, after which the country regressed to the level of Zanzibar. And what you are talking about is not freedom, but anarchy, although it may be freedom for you...
You just haven't encountered it yet, but I personally experienced all the "fun" of such revolutions, when my company was inspected 5 times in a year. The tax authorities openly said, "Sorry, buddy, but understand, the budget is empty, we are being squeezed, we can't collect taxes, so we will fine you."
Or another example. My wife lost my driver's license, and I need to retake the test. I go to the traffic police, and there is complete chaos, and the bribe is now 10 times higher because everyone is nervous. And without a license, I'm already losing a lot of money every day. Studying? That's nonsense. It's almost impossible to pass the test on your own, everyone wants a bribe. I had to pay.
And a third example. If before the revolution, fines were issued for speeding, starting from 1 minimum wage up to 10 minimum wages, first 1, then 2, then 3-5, after the revolution, they immediately issue the maximum fine on the first offense. And there are many such examples.
So, the question is, why do I need all these revolutions?
Teaching? That's nonsense. It's almost impossible to pass it on your own.
I passed it myself. Didn't pay a single extra penny. True, I was one of the few in the group :D. The others didn't even try!! because there's a strong stereotype that "it's impossible to pass it on your own." Skillfully fueled by instructors directly.
Everything is possible!
Сейчас балуюсь этим https://vcmi.eu/download/ За то что нейтралы не бегают за единичкой, для меня это уже стоит того
I passed the exam myself. Didn't pay a single extra penny. Although, I was part of a group :D. The others didn't even try!! because there's a strong stereotype that "it's impossible to pass the exam on your own." This stereotype is skillfully reinforced by the instructors directly.
Everything is possible!
I would have also passed the exam myself, but it would have taken time, and my time was more valuable. If I needed a driver's license to drive to the country house, I wouldn't hesitate. When I was learning to drive, I also passed the exam myself. I lived for 16 years without a license, and I can live for another month if I don't pass it.:D
From my experience reading this fellow - he often guesses the essence of phenomena correctly, though he usually dilutes them a bit with conspiracy theories and his political views. Nevertheless, it's useful to read if you make allowances for the above.
There are wise thoughts in places, but that's about 5%, the rest is junk that clogs your brain, which I could tear apart myself in about 10 minutes.
I'm reading the second article.
Read it. In short, don't read it, the guy is somehow trying to make money off his articles. You can find such nonsense on every street corner for free.
Added after 8 minutes Wicc
Say, in Moscow-2011 they also expressed their will, the authorities didn't particularly interfere, but it didn't turn out so well... and without any repressions, crackdowns, breaking dishes, or anything like that. They went out, held rallies, chatted online and in kitchens, most realized they shouldn't have gotten involved in the first place, and the process fizzled out on its own.
Well, generally speaking, now it's clear which way the wind blows. It's hard to imagine any other model:)
Added after 4 minutes Vatya
Personally, I'm against such changes. I had enough of 1990 and 2004, after which the country regressed to the level of Zanzibar. And what you're talking about isn't freedom, but anarchy, though maybe for you that is freedom...
You just haven't encountered this yet, but I personally felt all the quirks of such revolutions firsthand, when my company was inspected 5 times in a year. The tax inspectors said outright, sorry, dude, but understand, the budget is empty, we're being screwed over, we can't get taxes, so make up for it with fines.
Or another example. My wife washed my license [in the laundry], I had to retake the test. I go to the traffic police, and there's complete turmoil, and now the bribe is 10! times bigger, because everyone is scared. And for me, even one day without a car is a big loss. Study? That's nonsense. Passing it on my own there is almost impossible, everyone wants to eat. I had to pay up.
And a third example. If before the revolution fines were issued in the range of 1 minimum wage to 10 minimum wages, first 1, then 2, then 3-5, then after it, right from the first time, they gave the maximum. And there are tons of such examples.
So the question is, why the hell do I need all these revolutions?
Well, generally speaking, people like you are the ones standing there to make something change, and if you don't understand that, then you're doomed to pay up under any government, it's not about the government in your case, the problem is in you.
There are some wise thoughts here and there, but that's about 5%, the rest is garbage cluttering the brain, which I could tear apart myself in about 10 minutes.
I'm reading the second article.
Read it. In short, don't read it, the guy is somehow trying to make money off his articles. You can find such heresy on every corner, more than enough.
Could you be more specific here, please - what exactly is described incorrectly and how it actually is?
Flexing is not really appropriate here, you need to speak to the essence of the issue.
Well, generally, now it's clear which way the wind blows. It's hard to imagine a different model :)
And which way is it blowing? :) I can't grasp your thought, seems like just empty showing off again.
Piterius
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I just find it hilarious that people are even considering the possibility of a deal with Putin. Come on, they talk on the phone every day! Seriously, you're all adults, you should understand that behind the scenes, negotiations are happening every day. What you see in public is just a performance, maybe even a premiere, but in reality, they're just ordinary people. Numerous working committees have been created on both sides, bringing together the best minds. But everyone has only one option: the president has to leave. The question is, who will convince him of that? And how can they ensure that he won't face any consequences for it? Not everyone agrees. It would be one thing if he hadn't started playing the "last chance" card and selling land to China, taking out loans, and doing other things that are pointless to write about, but he's just making things worse. Now, it will take a lot of time and effort to get things back through international courts. In short, our leadership has really messed things up. And you can't get rid of them – they'll devour you, and you can't keep them – they'll devour you too. They're just sitting there, thinking...
Added 4 minutes ago Wicc
Please be more specific here – what exactly is described incorrectly and what is the reality?
It's not very appropriate to just talk without substance; you need to address the core of the issue.
I could talk for 10 minutes, and it could take days to describe everything. Let's simplify the task: you first write down what you consider to be true, and I'll answer you point by point.
Wicc
And where is this coming from? :) I can't grasp your thought; it seems like another empty bluff.
It's coming from 2011; it's hard for you to even imagine a different model with Putin's power, so you're building your assumptions around it and citing various Articles. What my "bluff" is, is not yet clear, so in the future, don't write anything until you have specifics. I can also say that your bluff is probably excessive; it's not clear whether you're operating with Articles, selective arguments, or whether you vouch for every word in them.
Added 15 minutes ago I especially find it amusing when there's talk of missiles. Come on, it's time to understand that no one needs a war; we live in peacetime. And if something does happen, Russia won't even have time to deploy its missiles; in 48 hours, there won't be a trace left of strategic objects across the country. The war was lost to the United States by default a long time ago, and I'm not even mentioning what would happen if China joins in. Asia as an ally? And what do they have? 4 billion people? And how many days would it take to eliminate that population? Has anyone even served in the army? Were you even told that manpower has not been a strength in real combat for the last 50 years, but is just a tool, a mechanism? Russia is needed as a raw material appendage by Europe, the United States, and everyone else, so they tolerate all its bravado; it's just big politics. Let them show off; what's the big deal? But it's weak to admit it; you have to wave your big... well, it's been a long time since it was big and capable of anything. Wave it, but not in front of Ukraine; it's nauseating.
Generally, you are adults and should understand that behind the scenes, negotiations are constantly taking place. During the day, it's a performance on stage, perhaps a premiere, but in the evening, they are just ordinary people.
Yes, we are probably adults and understand this perfectly. But in this case, psychology interferes with this stereotype. In my opinion, a member of the Guild of Thieves and a Rogue will never come to an agreement because they know each other's nature, just like a Rogue and another Rogue for the same reason. They can talk on the phone every day, but that doesn't mean they will actually agree on something. Each has their own plans and ambitions. They can quite easily use each other to achieve their goals, but it is unlikely that they will come to an agreement and create a grand scheme. For this, they need to form a team, and for this, there must be trust between them. But what kind of trust can there be in this pair? If one of them trusts the other, the game will be over.
And if they did come to an agreement, how could such a mastermind allow the Maidan to happen? Or is this also part of a grand plan? Then what awaits us next? A forceful solution? You yourself deny such a possibility. What other options are there?
Well, basically, people like you are there to ensure that something changes, but if you don't understand that, you're doomed to keep paying, regardless of who's in power. The power structure isn't the issue here; the problem lies with you.
In the next 20-30 years, the issue of paying won't change, no matter what. Just as people had to pay under Yanukovych, they will continue to pay under any government; the only question is the price. And the practice of extracting payments through laws can be taken to the extreme, simply by increasing the time it takes to make decisions. In theory, everything looks good, everything is democratic, but the decision-making process is extended from 3 months to a year.
Another simple example: during Yulia Tymoshenko's time, everyone was frustrated with customs. It was impossible to pay bribes; they were constantly watching, and as a result, even for products with a short shelf life, they would squeeze out "legal" payments. And trucks would sit there for weeks...