Forum — Tournament Committee

Registered: 11/27/2007

Posts: 5,099

#4628 12/12/2013 1:32 PM UTC

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For some reason, it seems to me that everything will end up something like this – Ukraine will be divided in half, with the western part coming under the influence of the EU, becoming a sort of new Poland, and the eastern part coming under the influence of Russia, a new Belarus. I'm not insisting on the accuracy of the forecast, but it seems quite likely to me.

In reply to Wicc

Registered: 3/18/2008

Posts: 3,093

#4629 12/12/2013 1:47 PM UTC

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Wicc

For some reason, it seems to me that everything will end up like this - Ukraine will be divided in half, the western part will come under the influence of the EU, becoming a kind of new Poland, and the eastern part will come under the influence of Russia, a new Belarus.

I'm not insisting on the accuracy of the forecast, but it seems quite likely to me.

It's unlikely that the opposition will be happy with such an outcome. After all, all the benefits are in the east and center.

Даже если вас съели - у вас два выхода:smile19:

Зима 2011-12.

In reply to Javdet

Registered: 11/27/2007

Posts: 5,099

#4630 12/12/2013 2:11 PM UTC

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Javdet

It's unlikely that the opposition would be happy with such an arrangement. After all, all the benefits are located in the east and center.

Indeed, this is the reason why this scenario has not yet been implemented. And even more than the opposition, the EU and the US would not be happy with such a scenario.

However, the natural course of historical events pushes towards exactly such an outcome. Therefore, with the weakening of the EU and the US, it may well be realized.

Registered: 3/18/2008

Posts: 3,093

#4631 12/12/2013 2:42 PM UTC

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The course of events is not natural but artificially inflated. I have traveled extensively throughout Ukraine, and based on my personal experience, I can say that neither in the west nor in the east does the population generally harbor such intense animosity towards each other that it affects their daily lives. There are some, of course, where this sentiment is more pronounced. But overall, the situation is more normal than it appears from the outside. There is one region with a strong cult of national identity. There is nothing wrong with that, as long as they don't impose their ideals too strongly on others. However, once I witnessed a march of UPA supporters, and it was genuinely frightening, like being in Germany in the late 1930s. But never mind, that's not the point. In general, the people there are tolerant of each other. The clashes are driven by those who can profit from it by exploiting the alleged interethnic discord.

Даже если вас съели - у вас два выхода:smile19:

Зима 2011-12.

Registered: 7/22/2010

Posts: 231

#4632 12/12/2013 3:31 PM UTC

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Hope you haven't gotten yourself into trouble!

Be careful, Wicc! You risk damaging your karma. :smile42:

In reply to Snooppy

Registered: 9/30/2012

Posts: 1,771

#4633 12/12/2013 5:14 PM UTC

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I read the debate, and each person's point of view is understandable. The following lines from "Bolt 69" came to mind:
"...to hack the system, you seek a hero,
unaware of your own strength,
and realizing how insignificant you are,
you erase your own memory,
instead of becoming stronger,
you sink back into darkness."
Some are waiting for a hero, others are trying to become one themselves. We'll see who wins in the future. We shouldn't forget that one revolution did succeed, so nothing is impossible. The main thing is that the changes don't happen for the worse.

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Registered: 11/23/2007

Posts: 1,239

#4634 12/12/2013 6:22 PM UTC

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Wicc This is not grumbling, but a social request for the replacement of the entire acting group. Once this request reaches a certain size, the curators will have to find a group of characters more suitable for Ukrainian politics. Otherwise, someone else will find this group and they will cease to be curators. Not a request, but already a result. Roman positioned himself as a vivid example of being against everyone. :) Essentially, this social stratum, due to its sabotage of political reality, brought the current president to power. By the way, not taken into account by either his supporters or his opponents. Is this bad or good? One must try to monetize everything within a period. Therefore, one must track capital movements. Instead of the expected long "Yulka" evolution, we got a swift "Vitka" revolution, minus the time he spent at the helm. This is evident from the capital movements. In the GDP structure, we have: Foreign trade of Ukraine for the period from 01.01.2013 to 31.10.2013, $ thousand
	Import		Export		Balance
World	62 794 788		51 849 571		-10 945 217
CIS	21 727 001	34,60%	13 466 909	25,97%	-8 260 092
CC, including:	22 429 857	35,72%	16 294 145	31,43%	-6 135 712
RF	18 795 314	29,93%	12 694 548	24,48%	-6 100 766
Kazakhstan	568 718	0,91%	1 909 734	3,68%	1 341 016
Belarus	3 065 825	4,88%	1 689 863	3,26%	-1 375 962
China	6 726 218	10,71%	2 270 396	4,38%	-4 455 822
Turkey	1 424 491	2,27%	3 111 749	6,00%	1 687 258
India	686 550	1,09%	1 581 708	3,05%	895 158
Korea	702 051	1,12%	205 418	0,40%	-496 633
USA	2 365 421	3,77%	721 194	1,39%	-1 644 227

And it is not a fact that gas would have cost as much as it does now under other conditions. There will be a second table too. This is what I mean by the same: capital movement shows who stands behind what; look for the beneficiaries. That's where the hands and feet of the Maidan are, but its head is still the social request.
In any election under current conditions, one chooses the best of the worst; you simply have to accept this system or become the main subject yourself. And a spontaneous protest without financial support cannot become a revolution. Likewise, it's not a fact that a hetman-style, hamlet-like Ukraine needs a leader, a president, and all such things. There are other forms of state government.

Summer 2013

Registered: 11/23/2007

Posts: 1,239

#4635 12/12/2013 6:42 PM UTC

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Sector of the economy					Share, %
Agriculture, hunting, forestry					9,08
Mining and quarrying					6,18
Manufacturing					11,38
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply					3,66
Construction					2,30
Trade; repair of motor vehicles and personal and household goods					15,89
Transportation and storage; communications					9,82
Education					5,53
Human health and social work activities					4,01
Financial and insurance activities					4,55
Real estate activities, rentals and engineering					9,53
Public administration					2,45
Taxes on products					13,25

If you know the oligarchs and where they've settled, then from this table one can determine which way the wind of revolutions might blow :)
In industrial production, 20% is accounted for by the food industry and metallurgy, 10% by mechanical engineering.
The tragedy of post-Soviet countries is that oligarchs lack a national consciousness (especially evident in Ukraine) and relatively easily acquired their starting capital (nouveaux riches without lineage or clan). That is why they pursued a colonial policy in their own country (though was it truly theirs?) without modernization or investing funds into the future. Perhaps the generation that grew up without the "sovok" mentality has begun to emerge.

Summer 2013

Registered: 1/31/2011

Posts: 609

#4636 12/13/2013 7:05 AM UTC

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ICQ: 494048169
Не любят многие порнуху, а я... А я люблю порнуху! © А.С. Пушкин
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Crypt Videos

Registered: 11/27/2007

Posts: 5,099

#4637 12/13/2013 7:36 AM UTC

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ooo... wanna make a bet that this is disinformation? :)

we can make it a symbolic one - 1 hryvnia :)

I almost cried from reading the text...

In reply to Wicc

Registered: 11/27/2013

Posts: 165

#4638 12/13/2013 7:55 AM UTC

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Damn... it's like 1917... and yet, many of these slogans and appeals are still relevant today...

"Одержать сто побед в ста битвах — это не вершина воинского искусства. Повергнуть врага без сражения — вот вершина.
"Сущность войны — обман. Искусный должен изображать неумелость. При готовности атаковать демонстрируй подчинение. Когда ты близок — кажись далёким, но когда ты очень далеко — притворись, будто ты рядом."

Registered: 3/18/2008

Posts: 3,093

#4639 12/13/2013 8:28 AM UTC

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Ikhti, when copy-pasting other people's texts, use your head! A large-scale battle will automatically escalate into a civil war. Who would benefit from this – the authorities or the opposition?

Даже если вас съели - у вас два выхода:smile19:

Зима 2011-12.

Registered: 11/5/2008

Posts: 893

#4640 12/13/2013 8:40 AM UTC

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Here's a really heartwarming story, I couldn't resist sharing it. ))) 9 hours ago · Kyiv. A traffic cop stopped me. A plump, rosy-cheeked major with snow-white whiskers and a warm smile that covered his entire round face. In short, he was the spitting image of a character from Ukrainian anecdotes about a best friend. The major introduced himself and asked me to clear the snow off my license plate, as it was covered. I cleared the snow and asked him, "So, what do they say in the police about the events on Maidan?" His answer: "Well, I don't know what they say in the entire police force. We're in the traffic police – we're happy." Question: "And what are you happy about, that people came out to protest, or that Berkut tried to disperse them?" Answer: "No, that's politics – we don't get involved in that. We're happy that before, everyone hated traffic cops, but now we're not so bad, and now everyone hates Berkut." And Les also chimed in with a good one. ))) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4vRYOAdG-E&feature=youtu.be

Registered: 1/31/2011

Posts: 609

#4641 12/13/2013 8:50 AM UTC

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Javdet

Ikhti, when you copy and paste texts, at least use your head))
A large-scale brawl will automatically turn into a civil war. Who needs this – the authorities or the opposition?

When you advise others to use their heads, start by using your own))

It's obvious that Yanukovych really wants to bring in troops and suppress the protests – for him, this is the simplest and most effective way out of the situation. But he can't just do that, because all the myths about democracy in Ukraine will be dispelled, and he will be recognized as a dictator by the entire international community. Let's use our heads and find a solution for Yanukovych – we need to create a situation in which the introduction of troops will be a necessary measure, so that the whole world agrees with this necessity. Large-scale riots and brawls are ideal for this. There was already one attempt at a provocation – when titushki stormed the administration building. It was not successful, the people didn't fall for it. This weekend, it seems, a second, more radical attempt is being prepared.

In reply to Ihtiandr

Registered: 11/27/2007

Posts: 5,099

#4642 12/13/2013 8:55 AM UTC

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Ihtiandr

When you advise others to use their brains, start by using your own!

It's obvious that Yanukovych really wants to deploy troops and suppress the protests – for him, this is the simplest and most effective way out of the situation. But he can't just do that, because all the myths about democracy in Ukraine will be dispelled, and he will be recognized as a dictator by the entire international community. Let's use our brains and find a way for Yanukovych – we need to create a situation in which the deployment of troops will be a necessary measure, so that the whole world agrees with this necessity. Mass riots and brawls are ideal for this. There was already one attempt at a provocation – when titushki stormed the administration building. It was not successful, the people didn't fall for it. This weekend, it seems, a second attempt is being prepared, a more radical one.

I still suggest you earn easily and quickly; 1 hryvnia is waiting for you :)

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