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Please help me understand how the "grayened" Gorgons and their "breath" ability work.
I read in the game manual that each powerful Gorgon has a 10% chance to "breathe" on a target.
So, what does "each" Gorgon mean? Does it mean a 10% chance for the entire stack, or for each Gorgon in the stack?
For example, if there are 50 Gorgons in a stack, does each of them have a 10% chance to "breathe"?
And if, say, five out of 50 Gorgons trigger the breath ability, how will that look?
Will it happen five times in a row?
Does that mean that if there are 10 Gorgons in a stack, the probability is 100%?
I've never been able to understand how the chance of triggering is calculated.
Please help me understand, I would be very grateful!
Lider1
13 years ago
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There was no need to create a new thread for this. It would have been enough to simply post here: /topic/421/
I also conducted experiments with Gorgons.
My theory is as follows:
The chance of a drop is calculated for each group of ten separately.
Roughly speaking, the chance for one Gorgon is 10% (9%), and for ten Gorgons, the chance is 90% (approximately).
For the second group of ten, a new calculation is made for a new creature. That is, for 20 Gorgons, the chance will be:
10 Gorgons - 90% chance for one creature
10 Gorgons - 90% chance for a second creature.
This is a significant difference compared to 45% for one and 45% for two creatures!
In the example with Dirti, the chance is 29.26% for one creature, 29.26% for two, and 29.26% for three. But it seems more correct to me that the chance is 87.8% for each group of ten Gorgons!
To put it bluntly, the chance for a Gorgon is 10% (9%), and for 10 Gorgons, the chance is 90% (approximately).
It's funny to read about these 9%. Where did you get this information?
For 10 Gorgons, the chance is not 90%, but 1 - 0.9^10 = 65%. Each Gorgon has its own separate probability. I don't know how else to explain it; people just don't understand... maybe you should study higher mathematics. Read a few pages of the discussion carefully.
It's funny to read about some 9%. Where did you get this information?
For 10 Gorgons, the chance is not 90%, but 1 - 0.9^10 = 65%. Each Gorgon has its own probability. I don't know how else to explain it; people just don't understand... maybe you should study higher mathematics. Read a few pages of the discussion carefully.
It's also funny why 0.9^ What do I care about your discussions? I'm describing my observations, and I can explain them. Let's take 70 Gorgons. According to your theory, the chance for one creature will be 14.27%, for two it will be 14.27%, and so on. But what do we see in reality? Let's take 70 Gorgons and attack Azure Dragons. Getting -1 and -2 is practically impossible; -3 and -4, etc., almost always occur. Out of a hundred attacks, -1 or -2 will almost never happen. Therefore, you can't divide it the way it's done in your example.
My explanation is closer to the truth: for every ten, it's 90%. And for each ten to miss 10% or at least 5-6 out of 7 to miss at the same time, in probability theory, this is very rare.
For 10 Gorgons, the chance is not 90%, but 1 - 0.9^10 = 65%
- in reality, let's take 10 Gorgons and calculate. Let's do 10-50-100-200 attacks. There's no 65% there; it's consistently 80% or more.
It's funny because of a lack of basic math knowledge. 0.9 is the chance of the Death Gaze not triggering (1-10%). 0.9^N is the chance that the Death Gaze will not work on N Gorgons. And 1-0.9^N is the chance that it will work on N Gorgons. What math did you study in college? heroes13
What do I care about your discussions? I'm describing my observations, and I can explain them.
One thing is observations, and another is the math behind the game. heroes13
Let's take 70 Gorgons. According to your theory, the chance will be 14.27% for one creature, 14.27% for two, and so on. But what do we have in reality? Let's take 70 Gorgons and attack Azure Dragons. Getting -1 and -2 is practically impossible, and -3 and -4 almost always occur.
Read the discussion in full. Here's the table:
Number --- Chance to kill an opponent with Death Gaze Gorgons --- 1 unit -- 2 units -- 3 units -- 4 units
Here, in the "1 unit" column, it means "1 or more." That is, 40 will kill 1, 2, 3, or 4 with a probability of 98%. And 4 will kill with a probability of 57%. heroes13
Out of a hundred attacks, -1 or -2 will not occur with a very high probability. Therefore, you can't divide it the way it's done in your example.
You need to read the discussion carefully. My initial numbers were incorrect, and then I admitted that what is written in the table above is correct. heroes13
in reality, let's take 10 Gorgons and calculate. let's do 10-50-100-200 attacks. 65% was nowhere to be found; it was consistently 80% or more.
Well, of course... This is just a story about morale.
Heroes13
13 years ago
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I didn't notice this post. I immediately stopped at yours and didn't read further. What Ambersoler wrote is very similar to my theory. So, sorry :) I got a 5 in math. I really loved math.
P.S. About morality, it's not just talk. I need to make a couple of videos. Maybe something else is influencing my views on morality.
I didn't notice this post. I immediately stopped at yours and didn't read any further. What Ambersoler wrote is very similar to my theory. So, I apologize :) I got a 5 in math. I really loved math.
Well, I'm glad that we at least agree on something :smile20:
KycoK_3a6opa
13 years ago
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I apologize for posting something that was already on the forum; I just couldn't find it! Now, the information about Gorgons is much clearer. Here's another question about the table: 01-------10% 02-------19% 05-------41% 10-------65% 11-------68%---30% 15-------79%---45% 20-------88%---61% 21-------89%---63%---35% 25-------93%---73%---46% 30-------96%---81%---59% 31-------96%---83%---61%---37% 40-------98%---92%---77%---57%
I don't quite understand the range of the number of Gorgons... For example, with 31 Gorgons, the chance for the 4th unit is 37%, and with 40, it's 57%. So, I'm curious what the chance would be in the range between 31 and 40 Gorgons, say, for 35 Gorgons, what would the chance be for the 4th unit? P.S. What does this symbol mean in the formula - "^"? I only have 11 classes, so please don't be too harsh.) Thank you all in advance!
I don't quite understand the range of the number of Gorgons... Let's say 31 Gorgons have a 37% chance for the 4th unit, and 40 have 57%. So, I'm curious, what's the chance in between 31 and 40 Gorgons? For example, what would be the chance for the 4th unit with 35 Gorgons? P.S. What does this symbol mean in the formula - "^"? I only have 11 classes, so don't judge me) Thank you all in advance!
These values are chosen because when the number of Gorgons is 11, 21, 31, etc., there is a chance to kill a new unit. That is, 31-40 Gorgons can only kill 4 units, and 41 has a chance to kill 5. The specific percentage between 31 and 40 is not that important; you should simply understand that the value lies between the upper and lower values.
These values are chosen because when the number of Gorgons is 11, 21, 31, etc., there is a chance to kill a new unit. That is, 31-40 Gorgons can only kill 4 units, while 41 has a chance to kill 5. The exact percentage between 31 and 40 is not so important; you should simply understand that the value lies between the upper and lower values.
The "^" symbol means raising to a power. 2^3 = 8.
Thank you very much! Now everything is clear; the posts you provided above were very helpful.
Added after 23 hours and 3 minutes Hmm... How do you calculate the chance (in percentage) for the 2nd, 3rd, etc. units? Let's say I calculated for 11 Gorgons in a calculator, and I got a 68% chance, as shown in the table, but how do I find out the chance for the second unit?
but how do you find the chance for the second unit?
For that, study mathematics. Honestly, I forgot the formula :) For 1, you can calculate it through the chance of it not appearing. For 2 and more, that formula won't work :)
Marmot
13 years ago
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I've wanted to write about this for a while, and I've finally gotten around to it::) I think the game developers did a poor job by implementing such a convoluted algorithm for calculating how many units will die from the gaze of the mighty Gorgons. They probably just wanted to "show off their knowledge." But the game is designed for ordinary people, schoolchildren aged 12 and up – how are they supposed to know all these calculations? Why couldn't they have simply used a percentage, like the magic resistance of golems or something similar? Of course, this is purely a rhetorical question, since the developers are long gone and don't care about our opinion on this...:(
I've wanted to write this for a long time, and I've finally decided to do it::) In my opinion, the game developers did not act fairly by implementing such a complex algorithm for calculating how many units will die from the gaze of the mighty Gorgons. Perhaps they just really wanted to "show off their knowledge." But the game is designed for ordinary people, schoolchildren aged 12 and older – where would they know all these calculations? Why couldn't they just use a percentage, like the magic resistance of golems, or something similar? Of course, this is purely a rhetorical question, because the developers have long since "left the building" and don't care about our opinion on this...:(
The fact is that the table described above turned out to be correct and has been verified in practice, but the author of this table somehow calculated the percentage ratios... I'm just curious about what formula he used and where he got these numbers from. I understand everything about the overall percentage based on the formula 1-(1-p)^n, but I understand that this is generally the CHANCE of the "gaze" working, but it is not clear how many units will actually be killed by this gaze... It is obvious that there is a formula that regulates the number of victims who die from the gaze, but how did the author of that table calculate the % for the number of units killed by the gaze?! How did the author calculate that, for example, a Gorgon with 31 attack has a 37% chance of killing 4 units? How did he get 37%??? According to the formula [1-(1-p)^n], 31 Gorgons have a 96% chance that the gaze will work at all, that is, out of 100 attacks, 96 will be with the "gaze," but it is not clear what the chance is of killing 4 units at the same time! (((
