Posts from Турниры HeroesWorld Cup & World Cup - 2012

In short, it wasn't possible to identify any decision-making system used by Thinkeer; all his actions are chaotic and lack a clear strategy. Or rather, it was possible to identify it – all his moves are only positive.

After playing against Vitaly, everything became clear, but there were still some minor doubts. What if he always plays like that, or if it was just a fluke? Now there can be no doubt – this guy should be banned!
But just for the sake of it, I'll also review Mike's game on the small map.

What Rebe did, even if it was maphacking, was amateurish and clumsy. But this is a cynical murder of opponents!!! I suspect he's working alone, without an accomplice, during the opponent's turns. Because in the game with Mike, his talent as a great commander awakens closer to the 2nd week.

JavdetWe were just analyzing the Chinese player's saves with Neo. Unfortunately, there is a 1% chance that he played honestly against Gomunguls

wrote such nonsense.
It's not nonsense, just Roma didn't present it convincingly, since he initially took an accusatory stance. I tried to find logical defensive arguments and, oddly enough, for 4 out of 5 episodes they were found instantly.

1. People wrote here about a beneficial sequence of taking conservatories.
Nothing of the sort. On day 117, the opponent ends the week by logically taking the bear external dwelling, which is located right by the middle conservatory. That says it all, I think. After buying on day 121, he hits the nearby conservatory. I would have done exactly the same. Then the opponent goes to take the far conservatory — nothing wrong with that. He'll take it and then split his army to go home to take the first one (that path is shorter than the other way around).
The opponent takes 2 conservatories, the treasure zone, and sees a path to the grass. Let's move on to point 2.

2. So, game day 122. The opponent has 4 Angels and 4 Bears, a decent main hero, and good tempo prospects. Two options. Why not rush the opponent, or if that fails, at least steal a couple of goodies from him? — we can always get back to our own stuff if needed. Besides, at home there's a strong Conservatory, and from it the directions are foggy. So I don't see any crime in such thoughts, especially since he's maintaining a chain to the home conservatory the whole time.

3. What I still haven't understood (I watched the saves only once, and Pit was already waiting for a game when I was finishing watching, so maybe I can look for more logic more carefully) is the algorithm for clearing the treasure zone. Let's say we were going to rush, and then suddenly there are 2 entrances to the treasure zone (goodies, the taking of which we allowed for, if the rush doesn't work out).
3.1 The main hero clears the guard in the metro, but leaves the elves on the rocks (they're close by, and I would have taken them out so that while I'm in the metro, scout heroes could scout the second treasure zone). But there are many factors, and it's not a significant mistake.
3.2 The main hero visits the library and, having 3 directions for further clearing the treasure zone, immediately returns back to the metro exit, while Kyrre is supposedly sent for scouting.
From my point of view, this is the most alarming moment, much more serious than all the others combined. And not because such movement brought more benefits than in the other moments, but because there is no logic of movement for a fogged map here, while there is for a revealed one. But I'll repeat again — we need to look more carefully, maybe we missed something.

4. Skill tree.
Well, in my opinion, it's not an argument at all.
The main hero doesn't take magic, supposedly because he knows it will be offered later. But he refuses it in favor of what skill?...
Yes, there is a so-called "gentleman's set" for skills. But that's in a vacuum. Under the influence of the game situation, you can refuse one skill in favor of another, which in your opinion might be more significant in that situation. For example, anticipating a possible contact, I would rather level up Armorer or Offense than take Basic Earth or Air (especially without a spell book, and without the necessary spells). That's one thing if you take Eagle Eye instead of Earth, so that later, say, on Anarchy, Diplomacy comes — that's different. But when the order of all useful skills is changed, options are possible.

5. And finally, the infamous split to go home.
I pressed the "view turn" button and saw movement near the Griffin Conservatory, namely taking an artifact for spell power. This doesn't mean there's definitely a strong main hero there, that the Griffin Conservatory will be fought, etc. But it undeniably creates a certain probability of such a development (and a rather significant one at that). Considering also that the opponent is constantly worried about the unconquered conservatory at home, this could be a sign of simple vigilance and reliability, which you can't blame a player for (as they say, better safe than sorry). Objections that the opponent didn't see the Griffin Conservatory cannot be accepted.
What is the statistical probability of clearing the Griffin Conservatory on SMC by week 2 for strong players? — with favorable layouts, I think it's well above 50%. And what is the probability that the Griffin Conservatory falls into the "unbeatable on week 2" category? — very simply, take all level 6 and 7 creatures that the Griffin Conservatory could consist of and look at the proportion of beatable and unbeatable ones — the question will answer itself. All this, multiplied by experience and vigilance, fully justifies the army split and buying.
If there had been no movement near the Griffin Conservatory, then I'd agree 99%. And I'll leave that 1% because, one way or another, day 126 is the most likely timing for the opponent's invasion, and to avoid ruining one's own position, it's not shameful to play it safe. In many games, when there's a war for strategic castles (more often on HL+U), to avoid losing growth, the castle starts being controlled as early as day 5 (just in case).

And just imagine that the Chinese player gives you exactly these explanations. Would anyone authorized raise their hand to call him a cheater for episodes 1-3 and 5? — I'm sure not.

Episode 4 remains open for me for now, and it's not a fact that the Chinese player will explain everything exactly as I wrote.

I don't quite understand the skill tree. At level 10, I got an advanced Earth-Tactics skill and leveled up Earth. Then, I spent 3 levels on Pathfinding, and after that, I should have been leveling up Earth again, not advanced skills. And at level 16, Earth was already maxed out.

sorry, Earth skill.

Here are some general thoughts on which players to watch out for. There's a very simple criterion: the win rate in tournament-relevant games against strong opponents. It's the win rate against strong opponents, not the overall win rate, and it has to be in tournament-relevant games. I remember once being concerned about my own tournament statistics. I compiled all the tournament topics I participated in and entered the results into a spreadsheet. I immediately divided the opponents into strong and average/weak, and entered the results for each in separate columns. When the work was done, a clear picture emerged: the result against average/weak opponents was around 90%, with rare defeats, mostly random. But against strong opponents, the result was surprisingly modest – around 55%, I thought it would be higher. That is, if, on average, there are 4 defeats for every 5 wins against strong players, that's quite enough to enter a lot of tournaments, be in the list of favorites for almost any tournament, etc. Moreover, this is the statistics for TE/VT and XL+U templates, where the variance is generally lower, and the dependence on skill is higher. But in something like SoD Balance/Panic, the outcome of the game depends much more on the favor of the random number generator than on personal skill. Of course, in a single tournament, this ratio may be violated; the winner will always defeat several opponents of approximately equal skill in a row. But over the course of several tournaments, statistics will inevitably take its toll. This is clearly seen in the example of the CIS Championships – the best result in all tournaments is 71% (against strong opponents) for Bayazet, and most of the top players are around 50% or even lower. This is approximately how it should be in a game like Heroes, which has a high degree of variance. Therefore, I quite allow that even in SoD, you can achieve a 90% win rate in games against newbies (which, for example, DeepMike does on the Portal), but I absolutely do not believe that you can maintain a high win rate against top players over a long distance. Even in a VT mirror match, this is doubtful, and in SoD Balance, which I generally consider to be a coin flip when the skill level is above average, it is completely unrealistic. Under normal circumstances, the situation should be approximately as follows: there is a large group of top players who have approximately equal chances of winning a tournament, and the specific winner is largely random, depending on how things turn out. This is exactly the situation that has been in all the CIS Championships – the favorites are approximately clear, but the winner is always slightly unexpected. If, however, one of the players breaks away from this pattern, has a suspiciously high win rate, or if even before the start of the tournament, 1-2 favorites are named, and this does not surprise anyone, then something is probably wrong with these favorites. It just doesn't add up mathematically. My firm opinion is that even the most skilled player must have losses due to stupidity, due to a wrong strategy, due to a bad build order, or due to some other unforeseen reason, or due to unfavorable circumstances. But, watching the tournaments, I sometimes see certain supermen who go through the map like a tank, crushing their opponents. These are fighters without fear or reproach. Moreover, it's okay if it's clear what the source of their skill is, such as the ability to focus on the game, extensive knowledge of the game, mastery of game psychology, or something else. But sometimes it happens that the player is unremarkable, but he keeps winning and winning. If you look at his "dad-level" replays, you don't see anything special. If you read his reports and reasoning, and argue about something, he's just an ordinary player. If you talk to him in real life or look at his photos, you don't see anything special either. You don't even have to play against him. This discrepancy between the overall image of the player and his results is the main criterion for me, indicating that we should take a closer look. I think I'm not the only one who feels these things; people are not fools, and trying to deceive everyone all the time is a hopeless task. The problem is that there is a certain taboo on discussing cheating in the Heroes community – it is useful between (!) disputes, but during them, it is better to get rid of unnecessary modesty.

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too many excuses. An honest person would have ignored the trolls long ago. That's just my opinion.

What is this nonsense?!
Since the topic has come up, he should have immediately explained his game properly, instead of making excuses and hinting at a conspiracy of ill-wishers.
As a person who has played with Rebellious perhaps more games than anyone else here, I am glad that he overcame his emotions and started to speak to the point.
The explanations seem reasonable, hopefully there will be no problems on HotA and HD, and he probably messed up this tournament, he shouldn't have been so emotional.

from Mike's comments back in April: "several times during the game, hope would flare up and then fade away." http://www.heroesportal.net/tavern/?id=365783&pagenum=2 Don Quixote's aria(( but even Don Quixote had the opportunity to win when knowledge of the map didn't really matter... too bad he couldn't pull it off:(

Mike vs Tinkeer gm2 on balance.
That's it, I didn't watch any further, but it seems to me it's not that interesting anymore. Just eating the treasure zone and war with Mephala. Maybe Mike will remember something interesting.
!

Due to lack of time and a drop in morale (I was completely confident in victory in this game), I didn't watch the saves. But in my opinion, at the point where you stopped, there is something to analyze. No amount of clearing the treasure zone helped him at that moment when meeting in the field; the only thing was to somehow manage to break into the castle in time, while also having time to upgrade Earth to Expert, thanks to which he later won the fight after some tricky maneuvers. I made a serious mistake here, getting a bit distracted by something with Mephala from the road, and because of that I didn't quite make it to the castle. Because of this, he somehow managed to gain 2 levels to Expert Earth and, with some maneuver that was incredible to me, managed to break into the castle and return the army — an extremely precise calculation.

I didn't analyze the second game either, but I was impressed by how quickly and purposefully he managed to clear the snow secondary, which allowed him to completely buy out on 121 and on 117 he stood with his entire army, of course, without speed on horses (though maybe my scout hero could have popped up somewhere in his line of sight) at the border of the secondary that I had already taken. Which is logical, I was impressed by his precise, offline-level clearing of respawns in the first week. But there are no complaints on that point, since he is that skilled).

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1. 121 cons by the road were NOT checked, and the third one was taken immediately. What do you think? Would you spend 1 move on checking? Well, if you know it's 3, then there's no point in checking, of course.
2. A reasonable option would have been to take 2 more cons (which is quite possible) and destroy the Garrison on the second turn to hinder the opponent. But here, it gave the clear impression that he was going for the Boots.
3. Regarding the library, I noticed it right away, but didn't say anything. It's immediately clear that the block is on both sides in the metro, and he's NOT going there, without scouting. Instead, he's going for the stones.
4. Skill tree? Under what influence can one refuse Earth at level 116, when you don't even have a SINGLE GUILD, and you can't know if it's slow or haste or something else THERE, but you have 4 cons? Nonsense.
5. Oh yes, the mega-creature. No other explanation was given. But there is one. Map hack.

The explanations seem clear.

I didn't find them clear. The key phrase is "I was just lucky."

I read Neo's post and all the following ones. I mostly disagree with Neo, specifically in this case if you think logically. In the first week, a player does scouting, and only in the second week do you start thinking about what and how to break. And any normal player will break what they see, not look for god knows what in the dark... The ideal option would be to break the Griffin Conservatory and run to the treasure zone with Inferno or to me. But the opponent goes to the grass, let's assume you can agree that he went to rush with 4 angels, but he went into the treasure zone and grabbed specifically the library... wtf, just that and straight back... without even revealing what's further... let's say he said he didn't want to look for something in the dark and decided to take what he saw (the armor)...))) then that would be funny))... regarding the earth magic, that's just nonsense... any player would have grabbed it immediately, and what thoughts could there be about such a quick encounter that earth wouldn't be needed, especially without knowing that defense would also be given... so then it turns out you shouldn't take anything at all, because what if someone shows up and I have undeveloped earth... you can get explanations from him, but what kind... that's another question. If he says, as you said, that he didn't need earth for that reason, then that's BS and nonsense... there's no such "gentleman's set" where earth wouldn't fit))...
I can say that I watched my own game and Mike's 2 games several times, and in all games there is a clear movement of the main hero, a very ideal choice of path. Even when the hero rides ahead of the horses)) it feels like he's moving along a scouted path...
Regarding that game that Roman described yesterday, I immediately started looking at the level-ups and saw that Valessa was given junk fairly soon. So if he deliberately ruined her with navigation, I wouldn't be surprised, but if he looked at the level-ups, then Neela's leveling would have been better than Dragon's... that portal near the ghost town was completely unnecessary and long, it's clear why they didn't even check it... only 2 roads remain: to the mages and to the Griffin Conservatory... the opponent immediately goes to the mages... he clearly runs to the boots... but then a somewhat unclear moment arises... why did he attack the air elementals only with the horses?? the scroll and boots were lying there... it's obvious there won't be just 20 of them... maybe he actually found them, or maybe it's a sacrifice to distract the eyes... I'd bet he had no restarts left in that game... and he played with what he had... and played it in the best way possible. In general, the main hero's movement is always clearly planned... in the second game, the same story... Valessa clears a good gnome dwelling on the snow and a couple of crypts with vampires... and she leaves that 3rd one for some unknown reason... although she could have grabbed that too and fought it fine, but it's minion, who needs it... she needs to rush to visit the stable at the enemy's respawn and prevent the elves from leaving... there was a treasure zone right there, just turn off the road and you're in the treasure zone, at full speed!!! but the opponent doesn't go there... I open it to see what's there, and indeed they've put such stuff there that it's better not to go there))... he rides further, some friction happens, and then boom, he goes into that same treasure zone but through the upper exit and there's a pandora's box with 10 thousand experience... Attack, Ranged, and Air are much better than Deesa's leveling, especially if you know Crag Hack's leveling))
I don't notice any elements of scouting in his games, there are none at all... he just clearly rides into the dark, every turn something brings him something or gives him something from the dark... and the path lies where they actually give something decent, not some rubbish like 50 thieves behind nagas...

But he's Chinese, so we won't ban him, just to avoid conflict.

But he's Chinese, so we won't ban him, just to avoid conflict.

It's still too early; let them get closer. (c) ;)

When his wife was being strangled, he stood nearby and said, "Hang in there, maybe everything will be alright."

but if he was watching a build guide, the Necromancer's build would have been better than the Dragon's...

What is this about?

So, when will the Chinese player be banned?

http://www.forum.heroes.by/viewtopic.php?t=613&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=120 Maybe we should adopt it? :D
I remember Stinger was against it))) I wonder what Tyoma thinks now, in relation to this case?:D