JavdetWe were just analyzing the Chinese player's saves with Neo. Unfortunately, there is a 1% chance that he played honestly against Gomunguls
It's not nonsense, just Roma didn't present it convincingly, since he initially took an accusatory stance. I tried to find logical defensive arguments and, oddly enough, for 4 out of 5 episodes they were found instantly.
1. People wrote here about a beneficial sequence of taking conservatories.
Nothing of the sort. On day 117, the opponent ends the week by logically taking the bear external dwelling, which is located right by the middle conservatory. That says it all, I think. After buying on day 121, he hits the nearby conservatory. I would have done exactly the same. Then the opponent goes to take the far conservatory — nothing wrong with that. He'll take it and then split his army to go home to take the first one (that path is shorter than the other way around).
The opponent takes 2 conservatories, the treasure zone, and sees a path to the grass. Let's move on to point 2.
2. So, game day 122. The opponent has 4 Angels and 4 Bears, a decent main hero, and good tempo prospects. Two options. Why not rush the opponent, or if that fails, at least steal a couple of goodies from him? — we can always get back to our own stuff if needed. Besides, at home there's a strong Conservatory, and from it the directions are foggy. So I don't see any crime in such thoughts, especially since he's maintaining a chain to the home conservatory the whole time.
3. What I still haven't understood (I watched the saves only once, and Pit was already waiting for a game when I was finishing watching, so maybe I can look for more logic more carefully) is the algorithm for clearing the treasure zone. Let's say we were going to rush, and then suddenly there are 2 entrances to the treasure zone (goodies, the taking of which we allowed for, if the rush doesn't work out).
3.1 The main hero clears the guard in the metro, but leaves the elves on the rocks (they're close by, and I would have taken them out so that while I'm in the metro, scout heroes could scout the second treasure zone). But there are many factors, and it's not a significant mistake.
3.2 The main hero visits the library and, having 3 directions for further clearing the treasure zone, immediately returns back to the metro exit, while Kyrre is supposedly sent for scouting.
From my point of view, this is the most alarming moment, much more serious than all the others combined. And not because such movement brought more benefits than in the other moments, but because there is no logic of movement for a fogged map here, while there is for a revealed one. But I'll repeat again — we need to look more carefully, maybe we missed something.
4. Skill tree.
Well, in my opinion, it's not an argument at all.
The main hero doesn't take magic, supposedly because he knows it will be offered later. But he refuses it in favor of what skill?...
Yes, there is a so-called "gentleman's set" for skills. But that's in a vacuum. Under the influence of the game situation, you can refuse one skill in favor of another, which in your opinion might be more significant in that situation. For example, anticipating a possible contact, I would rather level up Armorer or Offense than take Basic Earth or Air (especially without a spell book, and without the necessary spells). That's one thing if you take Eagle Eye instead of Earth, so that later, say, on Anarchy, Diplomacy comes — that's different. But when the order of all useful skills is changed, options are possible.
5. And finally, the infamous split to go home.
I pressed the "view turn" button and saw movement near the Griffin Conservatory, namely taking an artifact for spell power. This doesn't mean there's definitely a strong main hero there, that the Griffin Conservatory will be fought, etc. But it undeniably creates a certain probability of such a development (and a rather significant one at that). Considering also that the opponent is constantly worried about the unconquered conservatory at home, this could be a sign of simple vigilance and reliability, which you can't blame a player for (as they say, better safe than sorry). Objections that the opponent didn't see the Griffin Conservatory cannot be accepted.
What is the statistical probability of clearing the Griffin Conservatory on SMC by week 2 for strong players? — with favorable layouts, I think it's well above 50%. And what is the probability that the Griffin Conservatory falls into the "unbeatable on week 2" category? — very simply, take all level 6 and 7 creatures that the Griffin Conservatory could consist of and look at the proportion of beatable and unbeatable ones — the question will answer itself. All this, multiplied by experience and vigilance, fully justifies the army split and buying.
If there had been no movement near the Griffin Conservatory, then I'd agree 99%. And I'll leave that 1% because, one way or another, day 126 is the most likely timing for the opponent's invasion, and to avoid ruining one's own position, it's not shameful to play it safe. In many games, when there's a war for strategic castles (more often on HL+U), to avoid losing growth, the castle starts being controlled as early as day 5 (just in case).
And just imagine that the Chinese player gives you exactly these explanations. Would anyone authorized raise their hand to call him a cheater for episodes 1-3 and 5? — I'm sure not.
Episode 4 remains open for me for now, and it's not a fact that the Chinese player will explain everything exactly as I wrote.
