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Posts from Мафия 45. League of Legends

Mafia Closed Topic
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Offline Happy Life
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Posts: 24,194
#418
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But why save me if I'm immortal? :)
I think it's absolutely obvious that the defender won't move on the first turn, or Zybr and I have different understandings of the game, or...
My sword, my trusted ally, unphased by my aspect.
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Offline Zybr
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#419
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But why save me if I'm immortal? :)
:D
I think it's absolutely obvious that the defender won't move on the first turn, or Zybr and I have different understandings of the game, or...
How do you then explain the fact that the defenses are displayed identically?


Барон "Vampires"

Отдай свои прошлые сны,
В сомненьях себя обрети,
В бешеном танце душа кружится!
Не думай, что будет потом,
Здесь и сейчас мы живем,
Стань хоть на миг сам собой, слышишь!


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Offline Arandor
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Posts: 60,154
#420
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We got sidetracked this morning. We should have been looking for and discussing clues instead. So far, the only theory is Plesen's.

Be strong. Believe
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Offline Arandor
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#421
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By the way, someone mentioned the possibility of Poppy missing her turn (perhaps because she's blocked), but if a turn is skipped, it's quite logical, as killing a Good character results in losing a point of Influence. Killing your own character and losing the ability to kill in the first night... well, that would be too much).

Be strong. Believe
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Offline Zybr
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#422
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Killing your own and losing the kill in the first night... that would be too much.
It's just that Jaka isn't in the game.


Барон "Vampires"

Отдай свои прошлые сны,
В сомненьях себя обрети,
В бешеном танце душа кружится!
Не думай, что будет потом,
Здесь и сейчас мы живем,
Стань хоть на миг сам собой, слышишь!


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Offline Happy Life
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Posts: 24,194
#423
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How do you explain the fact that the defenses are displayed identically?
Why explain this fact? The description clearly shows that Sion didn't move.
My sword, my trusted ally, unphased by my aspect.
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Offline Zybr
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Posts: 7,032
#424
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Why explain this fact? The description clearly shows that Sion did not participate.
The descriptions clearly show the identity.


Барон "Vampires"

Отдай свои прошлые сны,
В сомненьях себя обрети,
В бешеном танце душа кружится!
Не думай, что будет потом,
Здесь и сейчас мы живем,
Стань хоть на миг сам собой, слышишь!


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Offline Happy Life
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Posts: 24,194
#425
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You’re overcomplicating things.
My sword, my trusted ally, unphased by my aspect.
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Offline Zybr
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Posts: 7,032
#426
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You're overcomplicating things.
But why?
1) Katarina and Urgot have no protection, and Urgot won't even resurrect with a 50% chance. Insurance in the first night is quite possible.
2) Protections are displayed identically. In cases involving both Nebo and Gumer, insurance is present. There is no indication of manipulation with space. Has there ever been a case where the Doctor protects the back or redirects? This is not typical of the Doctor's actions.


Барон "Vampires"

Отдай свои прошлые сны,
В сомненьях себя обрети,
В бешеном танце душа кружится!
Не думай, что будет потом,
Здесь и сейчас мы живем,
Стань хоть на миг сам собой, слышишь!


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Offline Zybr
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Posts: 7,032
#427
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More
3) The closer to the end of the game, the more obvious the protection of Zion becomes. At the beginning, in the first two or three days, the risk is minimal. In this case, however, Kaylee died, which narrowed down the circle of suspects.


Барон "Vampires"

Отдай свои прошлые сны,
В сомненьях себя обрети,
В бешеном танце душа кружится!
Не думай, что будет потом,
Здесь и сейчас мы живем,
Стань хоть на миг сам собой, слышишь!


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Offline Ment
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Posts: 41,374
#428
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In my opinion, it's absolutely obvious that the mafia protector won't act on the first night, or Zybr and I have different understandings of the game, or...
+100500, in any case, it's extremely disadvantageous. And those drawbacks of this scheme that you described, Zybr, are indeed present, but they pale in comparison to the drawbacks of protecting your own people on the first night.
3) The closer to the end of the game, the more obvious it becomes when Zion is being protected. In the beginning, in the first two or three days, the risk is minimal. In this case, however, Kaylee died, which narrowed the circle of suspects.
Elementary, Watson, at the end of the game, he might be protecting already revealed mountain archers who are safe from being killed.
 

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Offline Happy Life
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#429
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Okay, I agree. But that doesn't change the fact that the defense could have been compromised.
My sword, my trusted ally, unphased by my aspect.
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Offline Ment
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#430
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1) Katarina and Urgot have no defenses, and Urgot won't even be resurrected by a doctor with 50% chance. Insurance in the first night is quite possible.
I already explained the probabilities. To be honest, I made a small mistake there; it's not 1/5 to 1/4, but 2/5 to 1/4, but the probability of a successful defense is still 1/10. And for revealing, we have 33%, and in our case (it happened by chance, but even this could have been predicted), it's 50%. So, I repeat, either Noxy are idiots, or...
 

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Offline Zybr
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#431
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Elementary, Watson, by the end of the game, he can protect already "burned" mountains from being eliminated. (referring to a player)
To use a Night Defense (ND) unit for only this purpose throughout the entire game?
But this doesn't negate the fact that they could have used a "setup" strategy with the defense.
Theoretically, yes, but considering the characteristics of the "maniac" (player), does it make sense to do so on the first night? If they had targeted the same Yarvan, the city would have retained its double vote. That would definitely be more advantageous.
I already explained the probabilities. I was a little off, it's not 1/5 to 1/4, but 2/5 to 1/4, but the probability of a successful defense is still 1/10. And for a "reveal" (of the player's role), we have 33%, and in our case (it happened by chance, but even this could have been predicted), it's 50%.
Successful defense? His defense doesn't kill the attacker, so the success rate, if we don't count blocking, is 100%.
Nox has very vulnerable, but useful, killers. Losing Katarina or Ugrut after the first night is much worse than partially "burning" one of them. 33% is definitely not critical. Moreover, there are many other hidden factors. At least there's the option of a "setup" strategy. Even though I don't particularly believe in it, both you, Ment, and Morning are considering it as a viable option. Therefore, the "reveal" strategy becomes even less likely, while the defender's role is protected and preserved.

I'd like to hear more about predicting the murder of Kaylee :) How could that have been predicted?


Барон "Vampires"

Отдай свои прошлые сны,
В сомненьях себя обрети,
В бешеном танце душа кружится!
Не думай, что будет потом,
Здесь и сейчас мы живем,
Стань хоть на миг сам собой, слышишь!


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Offline Ment
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Posts: 41,374
#432
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Use a non-lethal attack only for this throughout the entire game?
Is it so important for you to use all non-lethal attacks? If it can cause harm, then it shouldn't be used.
Success rate of defense? Its defense doesn't kill the attacker. So, the success rate, if we don't count blocking, is 100%.
Is it really that hard to understand? I calculated the probability that the defense applied to a teammate won't be wasted and will actually be useful. And it's extremely low.
Even though I don't particularly believe in him, you, Ment, and Morning are considering him as a viable option.
This is a random factor; they might consider him, or they might not, and just silently execute him. No sane Mafia player would bet on him.
 

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