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Use a non-lethal attack only for this throughout the entire game?
Is it so important for you to use all non-lethal attacks? If it can cause harm, then it shouldn't be used.
Success rate of defense? Its defense doesn't kill the attacker. So, the success rate, if we don't count blocking, is 100%.
Is it really that hard to understand? I calculated the probability that the defense applied to a teammate won't be wasted and will actually be useful. And it's extremely low.
Even though I don't particularly believe in him, you, Ment, and Morning are considering him as a viable option.
This is a random factor; they might consider him, or they might not, and just silently execute him. No sane Mafia player would bet on him.