Мафия 45. League of Legends

Elementary, Watson, by the end of the game, he can protect already "burned" mountains from being eliminated. (referring to a player)

To use a Night Defense (ND) unit for only this purpose throughout the entire game?

But this doesn't negate the fact that they could have used a "setup" strategy with the defense.

Theoretically, yes, but considering the characteristics of the "maniac" (player), does it make sense to do so on the first night? If they had targeted the same Yarvan, the city would have retained its double vote. That would definitely be more advantageous.

I already explained the probabilities. I was a little off, it's not 1/5 to 1/4, but 2/5 to 1/4, but the probability of a successful defense is still 1/10. And for a "reveal" (of the player's role), we have 33%, and in our case (it happened by chance, but even this could have been predicted), it's 50%.

Successful defense? His defense doesn't kill the attacker, so the success rate, if we don't count blocking, is 100%.
Nox has very vulnerable, but useful, killers. Losing Katarina or Ugrut after the first night is much worse than partially "burning" one of them. 33% is definitely not critical. Moreover, there are many other hidden factors. At least there's the option of a "setup" strategy. Even though I don't particularly believe in it, both you, Ment, and Morning are considering it as a viable option. Therefore, the "reveal" strategy becomes even less likely, while the defender's role is protected and preserved.

I'd like to hear more about predicting the murder of Kaylee :) How could that have been predicted?