Mafia 112. Pirates of the HW Sea

Let's be honest, there isn't a single person here who is 100% sure of anything, except perhaps about the character Yaschur. This game is essentially about guessing and figuring out what will occur. Even now, the picture could be completely wrong due to a misinterpretation of some small detail. The probability of error here is at least 50% for almost any action, except for very straightforward ones like Jack's.

It's impossible to interpret anything here with certainty! I realized this on the very first day of the game, after reading the first newspaper.

Yes, a roulette wheel has a better chance of correctly determining who did what than these speculations, lol.

Therefore, between two probabilities, I choose the one where the potential gain is greater. In the event of failure, the difference is still small.