Posts from Mafia 71. Ancient World Auto-translated

I think I found the right dragon.

There are only dragons here.

Meow :(
Sky, come on, Ara decided that you'll be doing the clue-solving, so go ahead and solve them.
Do I still have to answer stupid questions, or can I go rest?

How is it even possible to cut something with jaws?

Mold wants to confuse everyone. Maybe we should execute him? Sincerely, Gur

Oh, alright, let's leave the sammoths.
Maybe this is a clue. Jaws are usually used for biting, gnawing, and all that.

Well, what can I say? I didn't find anything and I'm going to sleep! Not even a Barbarian. Maybe because it's not entirely clear what to look for. I couldn't find a way to adequately connect anything from the suggestion about Revan's death to anyone.

And I wasn't talking about summoning. Sincerely, Gur

You don't understand. According to Arya's plan, you and Plesen are supposed to spend the whole day accusing each other of being Mafia.

And I, by the way, am supposed to ask stupid questions. Where are the other players, and why aren't they writing anything? Who among these players is Mafia? Why haven't we seen the Serial Killer for two days? What will happen to us if we make a mistake today? How big will the baseball bat be that I'll use to knock out all of Arandor's teeth if he incorrectly identifies the candidate? Doesn't Rimp look too suspicious? Should we trust Arandor so unconditionally? Am I paranoid? Maybe we should just randomly hang someone. How idiotic am I behaving in this game? Should we hang Neyra if she continues to remain silent? And should we hang Amka? Should we hang them based on evidence, psychology, oology, analytics, intuition, the position of Mars in the Big Dipper constellation, or just do whatever Arandor says? Isn't it time for me to go to sleep?

Grading questions.

So, go ahead and answer.

Kosha doesn't understand sarcasm. Everything is terrible.

Well, what can I say, my dear geniuses?
Here's an achievement for you:


Now I'm not even sure if it's worth continuing to analyze the results of future games if they are used in such an illogical way.
I can say one thing - among those who voted against Tox (Sky, Arandor, Drakkosha, Mortulus, RiMpel2, Warrior777), there are at least three mafia members. In fact, most likely exactly three - a voiceless robot was thrown at another target. I don't recommend that reasonable people who voted for NNV trust anyone from this list.
Don't blindly trust Arandor; remember that his inherent tendency towards being a "maniac" is higher than that of all other players.
I will only trust a revealed clue if it is voiced by someone who is not a killer or a "gun-streaker."
Warrior777, make a correction - Arandor is not a zoologist because he was being watched by a dog; WisTrit is also not a zoologist or an orator, because there would be two dogs/pieces of compromising information under energy drinks. It's frankly a pain for me to maintain the table after your actions, comrades, killers who are not mafia.

But still, please answer.

I'll try to outline my opinions regarding the hypotheses about the different killers:
1) Rimpel - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 90%, because of the persistent advocacy for execution and spamming.
2) Drakkosha - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 75%, because of the attempt to talk and steer the discussion in a different direction.
3) Mortulus - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 50%, because of the conversation with Drakkosha in the same distracting style.
For the rest, the hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 30%.

I would like to point out that the hypothesis of being a Mafia member has nothing to do with how typical this behavior is for a person in the role of a town member. I'm keeping the hypotheses of being a town member at 30% for now, because I don't know anyone here.

In total, the maximum a posteriori probability of being a Mafia member among the killers, and indeed all the others, is 60% for Rimpel. It seems to me that this is a probability at which it's already possible to hang him - especially since the probability of an important role for the player is the same as for most of the others.

Execute Rimpel.

You shouldn't blindly trust Arandor; remember that his inherent tendency towards mafia-like behavior is higher than that of all other players.

And this is silly, although amusing. The other players essentially have the same chances.
Besides, I doubt that three mafia members voted. At most, it was two.