OUGHT
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I'll try to outline my opinions regarding the hypotheses about the different killers:
1) Rimpel - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 90%, because of the persistent advocacy for execution and spamming.
2) Drakkosha - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 75%, because of the attempt to talk and steer the discussion in a different direction.
3) Mortulus - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 50%, because of the conversation with Drakkosha in the same distracting style.
For the rest, the hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 30%.
I would like to point out that the hypothesis of being a Mafia member has nothing to do with how typical this behavior is for a person in the role of a town member. I'm keeping the hypotheses of being a town member at 30% for now, because I don't know anyone here.
In total, the maximum a posteriori probability of being a Mafia member among the killers, and indeed all the others, is 60% for Rimpel. It seems to me that this is a probability at which it's already possible to hang him - especially since the probability of an important role for the player is the same as for most of the others.
Execute Rimpel.
1) Rimpel - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 90%, because of the persistent advocacy for execution and spamming.
2) Drakkosha - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 75%, because of the attempt to talk and steer the discussion in a different direction.
3) Mortulus - hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 50%, because of the conversation with Drakkosha in the same distracting style.
For the rest, the hypothesis of being a Mafia member = 30%.
I would like to point out that the hypothesis of being a Mafia member has nothing to do with how typical this behavior is for a person in the role of a town member. I'm keeping the hypotheses of being a town member at 30% for now, because I don't know anyone here.
In total, the maximum a posteriori probability of being a Mafia member among the killers, and indeed all the others, is 60% for Rimpel. It seems to me that this is a probability at which it's already possible to hang him - especially since the probability of an important role for the player is the same as for most of the others.
Execute Rimpel.
Batman is a murderer no less than the Joker, for all the lives the Joker took that Batman could've saved by killing him.
Elizer Yudkovsky, "HP and the Methods of Rationality".
Мой ник транслитерируется по-разному, но я предпочитаю варианты Оот и Ооот.
Elizer Yudkovsky, "HP and the Methods of Rationality".
Мой ник транслитерируется по-разному, но я предпочитаю варианты Оот и Ооот.