Posts from Mafia 71. Ancient World Auto-translated

Because he's a maniac lord.
NNV.

So, the first version is ready. If I don't get killed on the second day, it will be updated – and so on. How to use it: If there is a minus sign (or any other symbol) in a cell, it indicates the probability that a particular person is excluded from a particular role. I only use color for clarity. The sheet is divided into two parts: the public matrix (what everyone knows) and the private one (what only you know – for example, the results of checks or that you are 100% a certain character). Regarding Bayesian calculations: There are three lines called hypotheses. In them, you need to enter the probability that a person will behave in a certain way, given a certain role. Example: You think that ToX is acting like a Serial Killer. You believe that when he is a Serial Killer, he will act this way in 40% of cases, when he is a Mafia, in 30% of cases, and when he is a Town member, in 5% of cases. You enter the following: hypothesis for Town = 0.05; hypothesis for Mafia = 0.3; hypothesis for Serial Killer = 0.4. Below, you will get the a posteriori probabilities that ToX is Mafia, Town, or Serial Killer. The numbers may seem counterintuitive, but this is one of the typical mistakes of the human psyche, which deep down does not think mathematically, but however it feels like it =-). Screenshot:

Actually, the question is: should we create separate hypotheses for each role, or would that be excessive?

That's a great approach to the game, I agree.

Added after 37 seconds

Actually, the question is - should we create separate hypotheses for each role, or would that be overkill?

I think what we have is enough.

Should we execute him for not being a member of the Mafia?

That's a great approach to the game, I agree.

Added after 37 seconds

I think what we have is enough.

Thanks =-)
Alright, I'm probably going to go to sleep now. Just in case, I'll vote for NNV before I go.

I thought that after playing 70 games, I had seen it all.

Guys, here he is, here he is, HERE HE IS, I said it back in my first Mafia game, that HE WOULD COME, HERE HE IS, the GURU OF KILLING BASED ON MATH.

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In short, Amko isn't a speaker, not an eavesdropper, not a blocker, not a dragon. Otherwise, these NDs would have been caught twice.

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Example: you think ToX is acting like a Mafia member. You believe that when he's Mafia, he'll act this way 40% of the time, if he's a Town member - 30% of the time, if he's a Neutral - 5% of the time. You enter the following: hypothesis for Neutral = 0.05; hypothesis for Mafia = 0.3; hypothesis for Mafia = 0.4

Just for the record, I acted like a Mafia member while being a Sheriff. I am soooo unpredictable.

Guys, here he is, here he is, HERE HE IS, I said it back in my first Mafia game, that HE WILL COME, HERE HE IS, THE GURU OF PUNISHMENTS IN MATHEMATICS.

I'm not a guru of punishments in mathematics – I'm not persuading anyone, I'm just providing a tool. However, thank you for the compliment. =-)
By the way, I had a thought that I'm doing a good deed, including for Mafia, by helping to calculate the roles of the townspeople. =-(

In short, Amko is not an orator, not an eavesdropper, not a blocker, not a dragon.
Otherwise, these NDs would have been done twice.

Thank you, I've taken note. However, formally speaking, Amko could be a blocker – there are several, she might not have been the one who went.

Just for the record, I was revealed as a maniac while being the commissioner. I am soooo unpredictable.

That's exactly why there are three hypothesis cells, not just one. ;-)

Thank you, I'll keep that in mind. Technically speaking, Amko could be a blocker – there are several of them, and she might not have been the one who visited.

But what's the reason for the zoologist not to visit? To accumulate Knowledge Points?
I think that both he and comrade Daskalos probably visited me.
But that's just a hypothesis. Considering the peculiar nature of some players, I wouldn't be surprised if they plan to survive until 5 AM in a game with 14 players and accumulate their zoological Knowledge Points.

But what's the point of not using a zoologist? To save action points?

Sending a dragon whelp after the target is a perfectly good option.

Letting the hound follow the trail is a perfectly good option.

But where is the hound in the newspaper?

Newspaper checks are not displayed.

Is this considered a check? O.o More like surveillance.

Hmm, yes, that’s strange. We need to wait for an official statement.