Mafia 71. Ancient World

So, the first version is ready. If I don't get killed on the second day, it will be updated – and so on. How to use it: If there is a minus sign (or any other symbol) in a cell, it indicates the probability that a particular person is excluded from a particular role. I only use color for clarity. The sheet is divided into two parts: the public matrix (what everyone knows) and the private one (what only you know – for example, the results of checks or that you are 100% a certain character). Regarding Bayesian calculations: There are three lines called hypotheses. In them, you need to enter the probability that a person will behave in a certain way, given a certain role. Example: You think that ToX is acting like a Serial Killer. You believe that when he is a Serial Killer, he will act this way in 40% of cases, when he is a Mafia, in 30% of cases, and when he is a Town member, in 5% of cases. You enter the following: hypothesis for Town = 0.05; hypothesis for Mafia = 0.3; hypothesis for Serial Killer = 0.4. Below, you will get the a posteriori probabilities that ToX is Mafia, Town, or Serial Killer. The numbers may seem counterintuitive, but this is one of the typical mistakes of the human psyche, which deep down does not think mathematically, but however it feels like it =-). Screenshot: