Reimian Empire — Expedition

Ment

8 years ago

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Now, I could nitpick about the inaccuracies in your wording, but I'm just trying to explain it in a simple way.

But I'm not criticizing, Heroist, it's actually important (Although I understand you now).
But Nebka shouldn't read the book at all. Because it's obvious why – randomness is not a reliable thing.

Heroist

8 years ago

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For a mathematics congress, this is important, but to simply explain the essence of it to a person, I highly doubt it. Moreover, I didn't even understand your criticism at first, until you pointed out the incorrect sentence structure. However, now that it's said, I would, in Nebk's place, after this discussion, completely ignore the overly eager explainers and read about it later in an accessible form somewhere, if I even wanted to spend time on it.

Драккошка

8 years ago

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We need to lure Yashur into the expansion and give him that book.

In reply to Heroist

Небо

8 years ago

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In this situation, I share the same opinion as Ment and Uran.

If two out of 99 readers died, then the chance of the hundredth reader dying is 5%. It doesn't increase because these events are independent.

No! The probability that if you read a book a million times and then die is almost 1.
But – if you've read the book 999,999 times and haven't died, then the probability of dying on the millionth read is still 5%!

I would read it myself in an accessible form somewhere if I wanted to spend time on it.

I took a course in probability theory at university and read one book. That was enough; I don't want to anymore.

Heroist

8 years ago

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What position are you referring to? Aside from a minor misunderstanding, we were discussing completely different things, and the quotes you provided are not suitable for this case. However, you can try running it 99 times on random.org and see what the final 5% will be.

Небо

8 years ago

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Did I understand correctly that, for me personally, each individual reading is somehow connected to the previous ones, and therefore the probability increases with each new reading? Or is it something else?

Added after 11 minutes
It's a terrible book.

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I'll give it to Arandor's character.

Ment

8 years ago

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That's the easiest way.

Uranium235

8 years ago

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I would ask a different question.
If you read a book aloud, will the chances of dying be triggered for everyone who listens to the reading, or can you listen with a sufficiently high willpower and not grasp the meaning?

Siverfale

8 years ago

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If the intelligence stat is too low, the effect will not work.

Небо

8 years ago

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If you read the book aloud, will the chances of dying be triggered for everyone who listens to the reading, or can you listen with a sufficiently high willpower but not comprehend the meaning?

Sky

Revan, and if you read it aloud, will you calculate the percentage for everyone?

Hakurei

If you sit around a campfire at night in the middle of the forest and listen to one of you read this book, then yes.

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Ple-Sen

8 years ago

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I'll give it to a character from Arandor.

You can sell it to a pawn shop. The owner will glance at its contents, die, and you can loot him.

Uranium235

8 years ago

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Well, in that case, we could try using it as a weapon of mass destruction. If we take control of someone influential, like a king, and force him to read the book aloud to a large audience, it could be quite an effective act of terrorism. If the king survives, we could try repeating the process, although I doubt they're that foolish to not interfere.

Ple-Sen

8 years ago

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I think that by taking control of the King, you can do many dangerous things without even needing a spellbook.

Небо

8 years ago

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Great ideas, guys. It's much more interesting than burning down old women's houses and blowing up cities. After all, it's a good book.

Heroist

8 years ago

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Am I understanding correctly that, for me personally, each individual reading is somehow connected to the previous ones, and therefore the probability increases with each new reading? Or is it something else?

In general, yes, in this case, as long as you don't die. Without getting into complex terminology, it's best to imagine it with a coin. Ideally, you should alternate between getting heads and tails, but in reality, each time you make the same (important word) throws, the probability of them repeating will decrease and decrease, while the opposite will increase. Or imagine some game with loot drops; sooner or later, you'll get your legendary item. People even create entire programs that predict approximately how many times you'll have to try before it happens. Many games even add special scripts that adjust the probability in one direction or another, "helping" or, conversely, "hindering" you from getting what you want. For example, in Hearthstone, the probability of drawing a legendary card is about 1%, but for convenience, Blizzard makes sure to give it to you in the 40th pack if you haven't been lucky enough to get it before. And in free mobile games, there is often a reverse system that prevents you from getting what you need until you spend money.
Ment and Uran are quite rightly (I'm not arguing) telling you about the independence of events and conditional probabilities, but for the sake of simplicity, we can ignore that. How many people would stop donating in games if they were explained about the unchanging probability and that because of one incorrect statement, all their dreams are shattered. In reality, ordinary people ignore this, and they are right to do so.

Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred.

The whole catch is just in the point of reference, which we somehow change when we say "read the book 999999 times and not die, but then on the millionth...", whereas in reality, we still mean "read the book a million times and die."
In general, you're right, so