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1) the enemy army has the same unit (even if there is only one) + the hero has a strong army.....
2) if he has diplomacy....
3) if the hero is leveled up, has a strong army + unit + lots of money--- it very often happens this way..... but if there is little money- they're unlikely to join...
4)..... if the neutral creature has the "Susceptible" checkbox marked......
there was a case in the first turn... I was playing as Dungeon.. attacked some genies.. they wanted to join, but due to my own stupidity and haste, I didn't recruit them...
according to your list:
1) no
2) no
3) no
4) no, someone else played on this same map and they didn't join him, but the armies and heroes were approximately equal...