Workshop

For the town – and who knows, maybe it won't be revealed – what will you do then?

25% for not revealing. Obviously, the Mafia will act based on the scenario where "the boss will be revealed." And they will use the ability only if a double kill is more important than concealing the boss. The exception is if, in other cases, the chances of winning are even less than 25%, then yes, it makes sense to take the risk.
In the end, the psychology here is not that interesting, and the question "Why overcomplicate things?" still applies.