Mafia: general discussions.

According to Arandor, it's "luck," but in my opinion, it's primarily the merit of the Fortress archer who identified and eliminated the Mafia in the very first night.

No, it's still luck. The stat sum of the Fortress archer's kill in the first night is always negative, and therefore, their merit is obviously negative (such an action harms). However, this doesn't take into account subtleties, such as shooting at non-actives, which in the long run can "stir up" the town and increase the chances of victory, and so on. But without all these considerations, the stat sum is still negative. If the Fortress archer guesses and kills the Mafia, it's not their merit, but rather random chance that, despite the player's inherently incorrect action, led to a positive result.