Vadimh
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With full armies, the probability of reaching only one stack without tactics is STRICTLY no more than 0.5 (and 0.4 if you don't mess up). Considering the standard screen of archers of all kinds, it's around 0.2. In what way is that high?
3 stacks of an elf without tactics have a speed of 9+, 2 of them are flyers, and another 2 are shooters. The elf will always reach the key stacks.
As for demons, tactics regularly HURT them against TE. An example strictly from life.
A demon using tactics moved his stacks, and the furies moved first. The girls had an excellent choice of stacks, reaching several, which meant there was an opportunity to choose who to hit to align with the elements. The horses took the hit and a stack was wiped out immediately (thanks to the pit, they grew significantly more); by the way, they would wipe out a stack of dogs even without elements if it were N on N. The TE dogs thinned the troops, but a decent amount of lizards remained, enough to take out either the devils or the alt-lizards. Again, there is a choice of whom to hit based on elements. In fact, the devils were taken out, and the lizards fought the alt-lizards. The heroes hadn't moved yet, and the battle was essentially over, and with a TE victory. I remember being quite surprised at the time, a pity the screenshots have long since worn away.
From here is a simple conclusion: if the initiative layout is not great, tactics can easily ruin the one who took them. And the one who specifically didn't take them will win.
Only an elf can be sure of their initiative, and even then under Wing. Maybe a mage too.
The furies will have such a choice that you can consider the elemental hit a certainty, and Luck with a probability of 0.5. (if without tactics, with tactics the probability of elements is almost always 7/16, but it can be more). At the start, the Orc's Fury is negligible, if without SA. Furies will take out any stack except cyclopes and, perhaps, chieftains.
With luck, even the cyclopes can easily be wiped out.
No aces, only invis and we wait for our stack to properly cut them down with elements.
Yeah, if none of them were taken down by furies. And when several possible elemental hits occur, high-initiative units are the first choice for attack. Sometimes furies are even sacrificed if it blocks a needed stack and then allows the lizards to spread out conveniently. So in the average layout, let's say the shamans were taken out, the chieftains pushed the cyclopes. And it's not a fact that these will reach where they need to. Why? Because units with base initiative 12 in the endgame usually have initiative 14+ and move before the hero with OS
Fighters basically move simultaneously with lizards. If they stood next to chieftains, then again it's not a fact they reach, because see above.
But if the lizards move intact, then the orc again loses a stack with a very high probability. If it randomizes and takes something high-initiative, the lizards will take out another stack.
If you carefully sum up all layouts and all probabilities, the result will be in favor of the orc, no need to ask a fortune teller. But when we discuss the late game for TE, we should immediately forget about attempts to come up with a mega-tactic to defeat eeeeveryone. The maximum is tactics and builds in which TE, with some luck, can win. In particular, the reasoning above shows quite realistic scenarios for victory, which will become completely realistic if the initiative (artifacts + starting spread) and elements randomize in their favor. Plus, you can periodically catch the orc with Darkness and OS, training him to always take Darkness suppression. If through all efforts it is possible to win 3-4 times out of 10, then the goal is achieved; more should not be expected from TE in the late game.
This has been calculated more than once :-) OS+Darkness+staff+cloak of deadly shadow (Tactics and Readiness also help) = very good chances of victory against an orc without suppression for any race. With tuning tactics, the mathematical expectation of the number of cyclops hits is something like 2 (too lazy to recalculate exactly) and this is without blocking and cutting them by high-initiative creatures and with maximum morale. And this is approximating juicy initiative artifacts for the Barbarian.
Without Darkness suppression, these are not the scenarios that would satisfy a generally strong late-game orc. And there have been quite large disappointments when the cyclopes never reached the enemy and immediately started kicking their own.