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And how often does an Orc take the Outpost? Especially in the late game, when either Darkness or Chaos might show up? And can you always find a specific creature in one or two of your own castles? I would estimate the chance of such a combination to be no more than 10%, because you need to get lucky with the creature and you'll have to give up something really useful. Therefore, it's easier to just forget about this option, especially since taking the Tactics skill for the Orc doesn't guarantee a 100% success rate. And that's why, in general, I consider the hero's turn AFTER the units' turn. If you're actually expecting this kind of setup from a familiar opponent, it means that without the Gnome Boots and with Darkness and Slow, Chaos becomes more appealing. The upgrades will be completely different, as will the artifacts.
Loga is useful in the late game anyway; without her, clearing the map will be much slower, and taking an Outpost won't be a problem. You just lose the Path of War, but that's not so terrible. A creature with a 50% chance of appearing from one castle is not uncommon. Out of the four speed boosts (speed aura, boots, combat, tactics), you need three for stacks with a speed of 5 to reach the enemy's large units, as you yourself noted. But the creature isn't always available, the boots can be more interesting, and without tactics, they might not reach the enemy. Also, there's a lower chance that the Orc will reach smaller stacks, and the Orc can one-shot an entire stack. Fireball
Let's look at the damage from the upgrades (yes, you can buy goblins from heroes and get them as perks, but upgrades have a greater effect on Cyclops) with Bloodlust and Claw. for goblins = 25 * 3.5 = 87.5 (for Centaurs, due to the range penalty, it's even less) for Cyclops = 1 * 52 * 2.4 (approximately) = 127.2. And this is regularly against a group of enemies and without retaliation.
And what about the stack's survivability? Again, for Shamans, even at level 1 of Fury? for goblins = 25 * 7 = 175 (225 with Resistance, which often simply doesn't fit into the upgrade path, or with a ring) for Cyclops = 225 * 2.3 (approximately) = 517.5 The math shows that the stacks' power will only equalize with a ratio of 100:1. That's quite exotic.
You've come to an interesting conclusion. Cyclops are twice as tough as goblins and hit 1.5 times harder. It turns out that the damage/survivability ratio is higher for goblins, according to your calculations. Also, Centaurs don't necessarily have to shoot with a longbow; a hoof attack will be much more effective.