Yes, given the current number of Mee and asm players, it seems like the CIS tournament will have to be held on SoD.

That is, switching from a version with a more or less acceptable balance to a version where the balance is much worse and there is no prospect of improvement in the future. And claiming that the reason for this is the lack of changes in the first version, which further distances it from the second version, to which it is proposed to switch.
This is exactly in line with the logic of "I'll spite my mother and freeze my ears off."

The reason for such a transition could be either a critical number of bugs in HotA, which doesn't seem to be the case, or a sudden enlightenment that has made most of the potential tournament participants appreciate the charms of SoD gameplay.

For now, it makes a pleasant impression, both in terms of the concept and what has already been done. If the developers also turn out to be adequate and not lazy (I can't assess this parameter yet), then it may well compete with HotA as the main alternative to SoD.

HotA will be able to compete with HotA as the main alternative to SoD if changes are made in the same direction as in TE/HotA.
Judging by the posts of the person who seems to be responsible for balancing the multiplayer in the HotA project, there is no reason to expect this.
The idea is that it is the same SoD with a new city and bug fixes, and not an alternative.