Dwarves versus Orcs.

Did you mean downloading and training, and logistics, or just one of these?

If you're focusing on luck, then it's one thing. And luck is useful for an alternate bear build.

Don't let the Orcs accumulate rage and become killing machines, and your own troops won't have to waste time reducing their rage.

I don't really believe in that scenario. Unless you arrive very early, although, maybe that's an option, I don't know. But I would choose Haven; it will definitely help in reducing rage by simply increasing the damage of those who can do it well: your own troops.