What hero do you have? I would choose Ibbu or Ingvar, the latter is even preferable if you're focusing on Readiness. Or, if you have problems with learning good runes, then Ingu: you can almost guarantee getting the entire necessary set with her.
Regarding the second level: I would keep the Maiming units even in the final stages. Their damage isn't high enough to base your decisions on that, and slowing down the Orc is very useful.
I agree that you need to choose Light, the rest is risky.
Leadership isn't very good if you're playing defensively. Although, you don't want to give up Retribution either... But it's still better to choose Education or Logistics (the former if you're not lucky enough to get the latter): these skills will create a "rough" advantage in strength, due to the greater development of your hero, which is quite useful against Orcs.
Regarding the dragons: I prefer the first upgrade, it's tougher and the fire shield will slightly reduce its Rage.
Well, overall it looks good. Of course, if there is an opportunity to choose a template without a third-level creature (I'm used to playing on templates where external dwellings are generated randomly), then definitely do it, because 300-600 is a lot. However, if you have the same number of Bears (a little less due to the growth), then it's worth choosing Ibbu and going for it.