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It's unlikely to be three. It wouldn't be beneficial for the developers to include three factions in one expansion and only one in another. The second one would be called a half-baked product :rolleyes:. Moreover, there is already information (unofficial, but quite logical) that there will be two expansions, each with two factions. Oh yes, chronologically, the Elves have already separated from Irollan.
Well, then it would be quite disappointing. The first expansion - Mages and Sylvan aka the return, the second - Dwarves and Elves aka the mountain war.