What?? I don't even have the skill for seeing elements, and I haven't built any structures in the Castles (and besides, the damage from elemental chains isn't added to the main damage in the logs, but appears as a separate line) (moreover, at that point I only had one native Castle, and I captured the other two later, in search of the "Explosion" spell)... there's a clear 1782, and with a 5+ luck chance, this probability is slightly higher than 0.075 (either you made a typo, or you mean a 7% chance of Expert Luck triggering?? less than one hit out of ten??)... and why are you giving me mathematical formulas? Just play the game... there are approximately 3 out of 5 hits with luck... And the argument has reached a dead end, because I'm telling you how it PRACTICALLY works in the game, and you're trying to force your theory on me... the difference in approaches is really obvious...
And I'm not "forcing" any of my own theories on you, because this is the official theory for calculating damage, as stated in the same manual. So either explain how these numbers are obtained, or you'll have to admit that the developers omitted something.