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Cyclops don't attack everyone, that's true. However, with 3 large units (and often 4, because during the training of Paladins/Champions, they can be split into 2 stacks) in a Knight's army, it's very difficult to position troops so that several stacks aren't hit at once. And Griffons can easily be caught in the splash damage.
If we're talking about Axel, it's obvious that a unit of what level will be in dangerous numbers, therefore, a level 5 unit won't pose a special threat.
Therefore, I see the main task of the Orc as destroying the Knight's trained uber-stack, while capturing everyone possible.
30 * 51 * 1.15 * 0.7 * 1.3 * 1.55 = 2482, i.e., approximately 25 Paladins minus (1.3 - the averaged model multiplier from Expert Luck)
And in response:
0.3 * 25 * 125 * 1.15 / 1.15 = 937.5, i.e., approximately 4 Cyclops minus
0.7 * 25 * 125 * (1.15 / 1.15) * 1100 / 6750 = 356.5 rage minus (i.e., with a decent probability, the rage is already less than zero)
It's not particularly great for the Orc... :rolleyes:
Now about the effectiveness of Crushing Blow. There is no strict description in the manual (maybe I had an old version?), but I assume that it is identical to Stun, but only in an area, i.e.
0.25 - 0.03(15000/6750) = 0.1834, which means that the probability of stunning, even with Soldier's Luck, is approximately 1/3.
I don't think it makes sense to accurately calculate the second attack of the Cyclops on the Paladins before the hero's turn; it's quite obvious that more than a hundred of them will remain alive, i.e., less than a third (!) of the stack will be killed. It doesn't really seem like a rout in the Knight's army. It turns out that even by focusing only on the uber-stack, it won't be possible to quickly remove it from the battle. Next, depending on the situation: either Subjugation on the Cyclops, or Vampirism on the Paladins, and game over for the Orc. Only resistance and a good roll will save him - Subjugation will not work, Vampirism will be cast too late or too early (silence, roar, etc.)
The main question is - how is it with training? Because, as the calculation shows, even a simple increase in monks can, with a decent probability, become an insurmountable obstacle for the Orc. Of course, if the focus is on 1 stack, then Darkness is our choice. Otherwise, Roar + Empathy, and it's unclear where the money went.
They won't return, almost guaranteed. Moreover, the Knight may not even have time to cast Vampirism, because in this case, he may miss the opportunity to control the Cyclops. The Knight's spell power, taking into account the reduction from the Orc's Spell Power perk, should be enough for at least 2 turns, so that the Subjugation-Vampirism-Subjugation combo works; otherwise, you can forget about Vampirism and just recast Subjugation.
Yes, with Readiness and Vampirism, anchors (both the 1st and 2nd options) can be excellent. However, the Knight is not a caster. He is not Orson, who relies on a Zombie anchor and defeats the enemy with magic, and he is not a Warlock with anchors of Minotaurs and Hydras, pouring Chaos on the enemy. Who will attack? Well, these 2 anchors will remain, which the Orc will not touch. He will cut down the rest of the troops, run away when he feels that "it's enough," and return with the remaining unused army.
There is no point in commenting on the replay from Lordesat. In a rush, 2 "adjustments" MUST give a turn (after morale - one). So, 30 Chieftains in a stack is not an option.:smile38: