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Just yesterday, I had a similar situation...
And that's exactly what happened: 1 time, somewhere around 450 gold.
i.e., you just pull numbers out of thin air.
In Heroes 3, there are a total of 144 heroes. On average, 5 dungeons are generated on the map. Now let's calculate the probability of the Logistics event :)
Дипломатия - искусство говорить собаке "хорошая собачка" до тех пор пока не найдешь подходящую палку.