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If you're interested... we played recently. Sylvan against the League. Fireball never missed. But Plague did miss once...
Everything is correct. Resistance is the chance of a 100% protection trigger. But for a Valok, it's Invulnerability, meaning a 100% protection becomes 50%. The mathematical effectiveness of Reflection and Resistance is the same against spells that Invulnerability affects, and it will be (with a large number of tests) 7.5% of the damage in the case of True Sight. Invulnerability does not apply to Plague, but the effectiveness is still the same - 15%. However, Resistance also gives a chance to deflect non-damaging spells, such as Darkness, so it is more advantageous. Also, it's easier to collect artifacts for additional resistance, and the effects add up arithmetically, while for protections, the remaining percentages of damage are multiplied. For example, if you have Reflection and Ice Shield, then against fire you will receive 0.85 * 0.5 = 0.425 damage, and not (1 - 0.15 - 0.5) = 0.35. Whether to take Reflection or Resistance is a matter of the situation on the map and personal preference.
