1) Short game, hero Deleb:
There's no talk of defense or luck here (unless there's no other alternative).
Full upgrade of machines + ballista + 3-shot + tent/catapult (optional) + developed gate with hellfire and sign + attack with everything necessary = level 14. In a short game, it's really possible to develop this way, with a 15% chance of attack. Let's assume there will be some inaccuracies. But by the final stage, at levels 17-19, all this is quite achievable. And above that, to get both attack and luck, and defense, and magic, and so on, it will be difficult to develop.
2) Long game, Grog:
Here, there's room for imagination and randomness, of course, with a long game. I'll attach a diagram, but in general, the development can be completely different, depending on who our opponent is.