I understand that you are talking about the average value, but this is incorrect.
I wrote about this, that you are calculating it wrong.

Did you read further?

Before his turn, 0.0625 of some unit of time must pass.

It is obvious that I divided 0.625 by 10, i.e., I took 0.375 as the starting position in the calculations, and 0.625 remained to be covered. Now I will check the post for such intermediate errors and correct them so as not to tempt people; the results there are correct.

furthermore, an Orc may well have an initiative higher than 15, and it is quite likely that the first turn will be theirs, even against a hero with Offensive Guard.

Yes, but he can also have an initiative of 7.

by the way, the Necromancer's control and this tactic have nothing in common.

Control can be used by anyone; this is a counter to this tactic and to the Orc in general, otherwise, he is already too strong. Berserk is often not superfluous, because the thought of it forces the Cyclops to immediately move far forward and expose themselves.

by the way, control is sometimes prohibited for greater balance on maps.

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Perhaps this makes sense on some maps, but banning it altogether, especially against the Orc, is an even greater imbalance, only in the other direction.