I'm a bit lost in your discussion thread, but I'm ready to join the discussion.
Just rephrase your question or topic of discussion in simpler terms.
For your term "Матожидание," I suggest replacing it with the familiar "DPM" for simplification, as it might be easier to understand.
The main thing is that Waterfall_13 understands, in any case.
I can't decipher DPM (damage per... what?).
Very briefly.
1. Luck 0 -- damage X
2. Luck 5, no true luck -- damage sometimes X, sometimes 2X, on average 1.5X
3. Luck 5, true luck exists -- damage always 2X
That's it. If you're saying that true luck doubles the damage, then you've forgotten to take line 2 into account.