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+1 morale/luck gives a slightly more than 4% chance of it occurring, at least that's what is written in the physics guide, and it agrees with practice. But negative morale occurs more often than it is written, about 1.5 times more often.
In general (except for Necropolis), Leadership is significantly better than Luck, both in terms of additional damage and in terms of tactical advantages. But both skills are only taken due to inevitability. For each race, there are 8 other more useful skills.
I only take one of these skills due to inevitability – as in the described case (either this or that), or if the choice is Keen Eye/Leadership (Luck).
The skills are not useless – no. It's just that, as already mentioned, any other skill, except for Keen Eye or Learning, will look more useful.
This is purely my opinion.
Fireball +1
The probability of the event you described in the third game is approximately 0.000029.