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If we're choosing between Lumen and Mondnacht... because it's unlikely anything else will win, even with deliberate vote manipulation. Dextrosa takes third place, and non-Swordsmen won't vote for it. Fenrir's position is clear. Well... there's still Avaris, of course.
So, choosing between the first two options I mentioned, Lumen has a much stronger bonus. Even for me, although only part of it is useful – the part concerning health and dodge, but not willpower checks. Next, some speculative considerations (not necessarily true). Lumen has a lower difficulty – a higher chance of survival? Perhaps, but also a smaller reward. If, for some reason, there's a division change (transfer option, or the old division is wiped, or there's actually a promotion to the first division, or we're forced to leave Orion), the Lumen bonus is unlikely to remain. Another consideration – Lumen supports. If there's a difference in the supply of divisions, they should be in the top three (after Avaris and the first division). The starting potions hint at this.
Mondnacht aims for grandeur, but its bonus is one of the weakest in the entire list. More speculation. In theory, if we do get enhancers, OS wouldn't be superfluous – you can only get this through level-ups by chance. Difficulty 2 => higher chance of dying, higher reward. But honestly, I'd prefer difficulty 3 for Onore or Fenrir, where there are clearly strong bonuses and strong allies, rather than 2, where everything looks weak and doesn't match that difficulty. Moreover, who knows what the criteria are. Being ambushed by two or three weak archers in the middle of a canyon is clearly worse for our melee party than fighting five average melee units in an open field. As an exaggerated example. The bonuses of Mondnacht are non-removable – perhaps the only objective plus.
Overall, I would prefer Lumen.