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Nebok read the book a million times and didn't die; the probability of dying next is almost one, as if it was confirmed on the previous page.
No! The probability that if you read a book a million times and die – is almost 1.
But – if you read the book 999999 times and didn't die, then the probability of dying on the millionth read – is still 5%!
See conditional probability.
 

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