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I read the latest posts, and it made me hesitant to join the discussion between knowledgeable people (especially since I haven't played the fourth game in a while). However, based on my own experience, I remember that when playing against neutral creatures or the computer (I usually played on the most difficult level), it was easiest to win with Haven, although I also played with other factions and had success. So, I think that with comparable armies, hero strength, and player skill, the victory will still go to Haven.
P.S. Please don't kick me, I won't participate in the argument.