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Posts from Mafia 71. Ancient World

Mafia Closed Topic
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Offline OUGHT
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Posts: 225
#282
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It's silly, although amusing. Others essentially have no less chance.
You're lying. The a priori probability of you being the Mana is higher than anyone else's – 16.7% (taking into account the corrections in several posts above).
Naturally, this is far from enough to condemn you, but it's more than enough not to blindly believe.
As for the a posteriori probability, let everyone calculate it themselves; that's where ontology comes into play.
And I doubt that three Mafia members voted. At most, two.
The Mafia won by one vote. They could have lost if they had left one living vote for a non-Town member. They could only have done this if they were absolutely sure about the distribution of "townies." By the way, under this hypothesis, we should suspect those who cast their votes last.
So, we have three votes from the Mafia and, quite possibly, a vote from the Mana plus two or three votes from peaceful killers.
Batman is a murderer no less than the Joker, for all the lives the Joker took that Batman could've saved by killing him.
Elizer Yudkovsky, "HP and the Methods of Rationality".
Мой ник транслитерируется по-разному, но я предпочитаю варианты Оот и Ооот.
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Offline Драккошка
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#283
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Ara, what do you think, should we accuse Rimp of being a Mafia member? Although, I wouldn't trust OUGHT; he quickly accused everyone.
А, вот почему.

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Offline OUGHT
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#284
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Actually, I wouldn't trust him so readily; he quickly accused everyone of being Mafia.
I am indeed a newbie and might be missing some details of the game. Please show me where I am wrong, and then I will correct my calculations and/or change my opinion.
In general, I like to change my opinion if I am proven wrong. It's just a character trait I have.
However, right now, I don't see any reason to vote for Mafia with fewer than three votes. Not even a little bit.
And, yes, I didn't accuse anyone of being Mafia; I just increased the probabilities. =-)
Batman is a murderer no less than the Joker, for all the lives the Joker took that Batman could've saved by killing him.
Elizer Yudkovsky, "HP and the Methods of Rationality".
Мой ник транслитерируется по-разному, но я предпочитаю варианты Оот и Ооот.
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Offline Arandor
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#285
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Let's start with the fact that the Mafia NEVER votes as a whole team on the first day, let alone for just one person.
I don't know, maybe we'll execute someone.

Be strong. Believe
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Offline OUGHT
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#286
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Let's start with the fact that the Mafia NEVER votes as a whole team on the first day, let alone for just one person.
I don't know, maybe we'll execute someone.
The Mafia consists of 4 people, not three. Let's not forget about the voiceless robot. Which, by the way, could be me, and all my calculations and tables are just a Cunning Plan that the Mafia came up with for some unknown reason. =-)
Batman is a murderer no less than the Joker, for all the lives the Joker took that Batman could've saved by killing him.
Elizer Yudkovsky, "HP and the Methods of Rationality".
Мой ник транслитерируется по-разному, но я предпочитаю варианты Оот и Ооот.
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Offline Arandor
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#287
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Given the list of players, there’s no need to think about elaborate plans. Only Tox could come up with something interesting, but he’s not here.

Be strong. Believe
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Offline Драккошка
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#288
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It very well could be. I remember one of my teammates once posted an Excel spreadsheet in a similar thread. And he modestly failed to mention that our spreadsheet was much more detailed and interesting at the time. Ara, I don't like Rimp either. I don't like either of them. And Ara is right. During the execution on the first day, the townspeople often eliminate their own members without the help of the Mafia. I'm not saying I'm thrilled about it, but it's a fact. As a minor point, it's not very obvious, but when I'm playing as the Mafia, I either write more carefully or just cause a scandal for half the thread.
А, вот почему.

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Offline Arandor
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#289
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No, you can’t really call that a PLAN. It’s just information that any world can put together. Someone might have a better version of it, depending on their role.

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Offline Драккошка
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#290
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Some are in a worse position because someone couldn't be bothered to update it with the new data. And, by the way, if the eavesdropping device thinks it's a smart player capable of carrying the team, it should keep quiet at night. We still have the zoologist's ultimate ability lying around somewhere, so we can pull it off somehow if necessary. [Captain Obvious] By the way, there wasn't an orator in the poll. There was an advisor. And not a single robot. [/Captain Obvious]
А, вот почему.

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Offline OUGHT
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#291
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It’s a minor thing, not very obvious, but when I’m a mafia member, I either write more carefully or just cause a big scandal in the thread.
You caused a flood in the thread; it doesn’t seem much different to me. =-)
Very likely. I remember one of my teammates once posted an Excel table in the thread. At the same time, he modestly failed to mention that we had a much more detailed and interesting table at the time.
But why would I add Bayesian calculations, turning it into a convenient tool for calculating suspicions using worldviews?
However, yes, I could have done it as a disguise.
And Ara is right. During the execution on the first day, worldviews often reveal their own without the help of the mafia. I’m not saying I’m thrilled about it, but it’s a fact.
Really, with a one-vote difference, which resulted from shifting votes at the last moment? Unlikely, although anything is possible.
I would add a Bayesian calculation of votes, but the killer-worldviews will still find one number and cling to it, so it’s unlikely to help the town.
Batman is a murderer no less than the Joker, for all the lives the Joker took that Batman could've saved by killing him.
Elizer Yudkovsky, "HP and the Methods of Rationality".
Мой ник транслитерируется по-разному, но я предпочитаю варианты Оот и Ооот.
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Offline Arandor
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#292
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But no one knew that there was a double vote. You can, of course, execute someone from the list, but that's a big risk.

Be strong. Believe
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Offline Драккошка
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#293
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You flooded half the topic; I don't think it's that different.
I can clearly show you the difference between flooding and a scandal. Do you want me to? Or will you just take my word for it?
Then why would I add Bayesian calculations, turning it into a convenient tool for calculating suspicions?
However, yes, I could have done it as a disguise.
Exactly. You have more data anyway. I bet you've already calculated something useful.
By the way, if you've been stuck in the block for two nights, then it's all Mafia.
Really, with a one-vote difference that resulted from shifting votes at the last moment? Unlikely, although anything is possible.
You have no idea what's possible in our Mafia. For us, it's normal to eliminate half the town on the first day and then dramatically overcome the Mafia at the last moment.
А, вот почему.

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Offline OUGHT
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#294
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Some are in a worse situation because someone can't be bothered to refine it with the new data.
Or maybe this someone thinks that everyone will inevitably hit the same prior probability number.
However, I'll still hope for the best and share my current assessment.

"Mafia advantage" - an estimated characteristic showing how much better we know the peaceful characters compared to the Mafia. The higher it is, the worse it is for the town. At the beginning of the first turn, it was 1.84.
Batman is a murderer no less than the Joker, for all the lives the Joker took that Batman could've saved by killing him.
Elizer Yudkovsky, "HP and the Methods of Rationality".
Мой ник транслитерируется по-разному, но я предпочитаю варианты Оот и Ооот.
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Offline Драккошка
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#295
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Or does someone think that everyone will inevitably end up with the same number as the a priori probability.
I was referring to myself.

From the list of "KILLERS," as we were so kindly and friendly called here, I would only try Rimpah.
А, вот почему.

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Offline Arandor
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#296
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Yes, some good maps are being wasted. That’s a shame.

Be strong. Believe
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