Posts from Mafia 40. In the Name of the Emperor

Ah, Tox, you would have done better to remember my words from our previous Mafia game, when I stated that I enjoy maximum competition, and therefore I will never rush to eliminate strong players. So, your theory is falling apart. But the fact that you like to target me and Hosa is closer to the truth.

As for the probability, I'm assuming that it's highly unlikely that none of us three are Mafia. You should understand this yourself. I'm not a bad choice, Lynx has slightly fewer chances than you, so my vote is accordingly on you.

ND 2 – the curse of the Warp

is mentioned in the newspaper as just a regular poisoning?

DD – can insist on their own opinion once per game. But yields to the authority of the Order Master if he uses his DD. Doesn't give themselves away.

lol. they probably won't delay with this DD.

Spir, the thing is, one of us is 100% a Town member, because his role isn't mentioned in the newspaper. =)

Do you want me to calculate the probability for the remaining two? Sure.
If we take the worst-case scenario and assume 5 against 8 (let's also include the Mafia), it will be like this:

For each role of one player, there are 12 roles of another player.
If the first one is a Town member, then in 4 out of 12 cases, the second one is also a Town member. We multiply this by the number of possible Town roles. In total, it's 20 out of 60.
If the first one is a Mafia member, then in 5 out of 12 cases, the second one is a Town member. We multiply this by the number of possible Evil roles. In total, it's 40 out of 96.

Overall, it's 60 out of 156. In percentage terms, it's 38% that all three are Town members. Not that small.

Besides, I'm starting to think that's the case, and the real Mafia members are quietly laughing, watching Spir and me accuse each other.

Tox, why not? Can't I be a Mafia member who decided to eliminate you for that reason? I'm just curious why Vis can, but I can't. And it seems that talking about personal dislike is trendy now. Ugh... I have a neutral attitude towards you.

Lol, I made a mistake.

Please disregard my previous post.
If there's only one Mafia member, it doesn't matter what the probability is that the second person is Town.

Although... overall, it turns out to be 13% that both are Town, 51% that one is Town and the other is Mafia, and 36% that both are Mafia.
So, the calculation I made earlier was actually useful. =)

Spir, how about executing Lynx then? If you're really Town, you should understand that I'm a valuable player for the Town.
And if the Town doesn't believe me, send someone after me. A check or a blocker – both options are useful. But a blocker would be better. :D

Added after 41 seconds
Kits, you're not so much trying to eliminate me as you are failing to protect me. That's the difference.

Is an unsuccessful recruitment described if the chances didn't work out, or are cases with non-recruitable units also described?

Both cases are described in the same way....

Quote:
ND 2 – Curse of the Warp
Is it mentioned in the newspaper as a regular poisoning?

The target is not specified... only that ND was used... if that's what the question is about...

Ah, Tox, you would have done better to remember my words from our previous Mafia game, when I stated that I love maximum competition, and therefore I will never rush to eliminate strong players. So, your theory is falling apart. But the fact that you like to use your NDs, sometimes against me, sometimes against Hosa, is closer to the truth.

True!

In short, Tox, don't be an idiot. Your manic tendencies will still be useful to us, but you need to correctly understand the situation in the city, and not be swayed by your own stupid arguments. You're now going to accuse everyone who votes against you of being Mafia, even though there are facts that allow you to do so. Maybe Visi is Mafia because he's protecting you? Oh, come on, don't make me laugh.
And so on.
Let's assume that Tox was being targeted and was blocked. And, for example, one of the Mafia teams decided not to make a move.
Why wouldn't these blockers block the same people again?

Added 2 minutes later
Tox, this is already ridiculous. What the hell kind of mathematics is there in the game Mafia, even with clues? THIS IS NOT THE FALL OF THE DOLLAR, THIS IS LIFE AND DEATH!
Please, don't refer to percentages.

Jack, lol, I'm not accusing anyone of being a mafia member except for Spira. And even then, he manages to convince me otherwise with his latest posts. Yes, there are suspicions about Vistrit and Reinhard, but I remember how the first one played as a mafia member, and I realize that it's unlikely to be the case now. As for the second one, he has always been a mysterious player for me, so I can't say anything about him.

Well, I'm really looking forward to seeing MEGA ANALYSIS from the other players, but I don't think we should blame Toxa. A No New Victory (NNV) scenario is possible.

There are no casualties, so why complicate things?

Tox subtly hinted that his status isn't very good. It was clearly about the second role, and therefore, for peaceful play, he only has two roles available, as one of the bad statuses was blocking him. Two roles for peaceful play, lol... I want to vote.

besides, one of them is recruited with 100% certainty. even more lol.
execute Tox

Well, here we go, some talk about personal grudges and other nonsense, just like in the previous game and the one before that. Again, some absurd calculations in the style of "45% chance that so-and-so is the mafia."
Guys, let's just vote, what are you even doing, let's just do it. Let's vote for Tox.
Let's vote, guys, I'm telling you, try it, you might want to do it again.

Ara, you're thinking too narrowly. =)

Although, you know, even from your point of view, something tells me that the examiners will see in me a trait that is found... Well, quite often among our Haven, and among the heretics/inquisitors.

I'm not implying anything, just let's say... Intuition. :3

I don't know what Jack is trying to convey to the town and what points he's talking about, but it's starting to sound like excuses. Tox himself is trying to analyze who is going to vote him out, but according to him, it's the townspeople and players whose playstyle he doesn't know. Funny. Vote Tox. I think that's better. If Tox is Mafia, and he seems to be, then that's fine. Otherwise, it's extremely necessary to check the other blocked players.