Mafia 103. Ice and Ash

I can't simply copy your analysis because I initially have no information and rely entirely on your breakdown of the game situation in this case. We would be on equal footing if I had been following the match from day one, but I don't have the time or desire to catch up on four days and nights now. However, I can still draw certain conclusions for myself.
By the way, in other cases, my questions are addressed to anyone who wants to answer them.