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Let's consider the scenario. If the opponent gets a quick path to you through a secondary route, then the ability to kill him with a red rush on turn 121 might be worth paying 10k for. If there's no quick path and getting to the opponent's base is difficult, then there's no point in paying, as a red rush is no longer effective on turn 141. Thus, the trade for the possibility of a red rush turns into a pure guessing game with no relation to skill.