Sacred Haven of Debauchery

6. The Ambiguity Effect

We don't like options where the probability of a successful outcome is unknown. Even if an alternative option promises a very small, but predictable chance of success, we will choose it. We are more afraid of uncertainty than simply bad outcomes.

What to do: try to estimate, at least approximately, what the probability of a successful outcome is for the course of action that, it seems, is unknown.